TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13078879
Played Sep 5Finished
Jakub Senk
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 7
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511811211––––
Jan Krames Sr
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:28 and never touched — 70.3% is still 70.3%
Graded at full timeJan Krames Sr to win
70.3%
70.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Senk above · Jan Krames Sr below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 2-7
Point 44 set 3, 2-7 — our read held Jan Krames Sr at 70.3%
44 points drawn · the score is 4 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Jakub Senk 2–4 Jan Krames Sr Jakub Senk has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:28What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Sr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Sr
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Senk 1564 vs Sr 1689
Sr
Correct
both rated, 125 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Senk 0% vs Sr 60%
Sr
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Senk 20% vs Sr 60%
Sr
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Senk -5 · Sr -1
Senk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Sr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sr form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSenk 2.75 / Sr 1.40
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Sr)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13078879
Senk2.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog49% won 27 of 55
Down 0–1, comes back49% 16 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back27% 4 of 15
Sr1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 120 of 210
Up 2–0, closes it90% 65 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it78% 100 of 128
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeSenk2wins
AwaySr4wins
2 of 6 to a deciderSr leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSenkn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwaySr80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Senk1Sr5n = 6Sr took 5 of 6
S2Senk1Sr5n = 6Sr took 5 of 6
S3Senk4Sr2n = 6Senk took 4 of 6
S4Senk1Sr4n = 5Sr took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away350%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricSenkSrSenk − SrBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set15−4of 6Avg pointsper match37.843.8−6.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSenkSrBasisWin rate · lifetime147 / 283 vs 387 / 70251.9%55.1%147 / 283 vs 387 / 702Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.440.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SrSenk 2.75/Sr 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.3%
Sr · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Sr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WMay 10 · 11:00J. Senk—912118113J. Sr—111091172
LJan 17 · 11:15J. Senk—681451J. Sr—111112113
LJan 10 · 10:15J. Senk—681151J. Sr—11119113
WDec 6 · 18:15J. Senk—1110511113J. Sr—91211752
LNov 1 · 21:15J. Senk—39140J. Sr—1111163
LNov 1 · 20:15J. Senk—871591J. Sr—111113113
J. Senk10
LSep 5 · 20:13J. Senk2.10411491L. Veigl1.6711711113LSep 5 · 18:15L. Veigl1.801111113J. Senk1.917890LSep 5 · 17:45O. Mezera2.00115811113J. Senk1.7341111862LSep 4 · 08:19J. Senk2.107960P. Fencl1.671111113LSep 4 · 07:15P. Fencl1.7311811113J. Senk2.00911781LSep 4 · 06:45J. Senk2.207990T. Liska1.611111113LSep 4 · 05:45J. Senk1.7311860M. Vyskocil2.001311113LAug 23 · 12:53R. Pisa1.7311119113J. Senk2.00571191WAug 23 · 11:15O. Mezera2.2019760J. Senk1.612111113WAug 23 · 10:45J. Senk2.5011116113M. Kocvara1.50781131
J. Sr10
WSep 6 · 12:54J. Sr1.611311113L. Adam2.2011760WSep 6 · 11:45J. Sr1.40111112113M. Kocvara2.75761481WSep 6 · 10:15O. Mezera2.751112461J. Sr1.4091411113WSep 6 · 09:45L. Adam2.104760J. Sr1.671111113WSep 5 · 20:44J. Sr1.331111113O. Mezera3.251440LSep 5 · 18:45O. Mezera3.00121476123J. Sr1.3610121111102WSep 5 · 17:15L. Veigl2.25911691J. Sr1.5711511113WSep 4 · 20:53J. Sr1.7311118113D. Gasparovic2.00761121LSep 4 · 19:45J. Sr1.9111117662V. Burylov1.80531111113WSep 4 · 18:15A. Snr1.8361151152J. Sr1.83117117113
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