TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073031
Played Sep 4Finished
Pavel Fencl
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119811117118––
Jakub Senk
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:59 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timePavel Fencl to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Fencl above · Jakub Senk below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 76 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Pavel Fencl at 58.9%
76 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Fencl 3–1 Jakub Senk Jakub Senk has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:59What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Fencl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Fencl
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fencl 1576 vs Senk 1540
Fencl
Correct
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fencl 0% vs Senk 40%
Senk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fencl 30% vs Senk 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Fencl -5 · Senk -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Fencl) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fencl form (0%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFencl 1.73 / Senk 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Fencl)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13073031
Fencl1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite33% won 4 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it50% 3 of 6
Senk2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 27 of 58
Down 0–1, comes back44% 16 of 36
Down 0–2, comes back24% 4 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeFencl3wins
AwaySenk1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderFencl leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFencl100%3 of 3
AwaySenkn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fencl3Senk1n = 4Fencl took 3 of 4
S2Fencl3Senk1n = 4Fencl took 3 of 4
S3Fencl3Senk1n = 4Fencl took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricFenclSenkF − SBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match38.032.0+6.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFenclSenkBasisWin rate · lifetime40 / 83 vs 147 / 28548.2%51.6%40 / 83 vs 147 / 285Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.339.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FenclFencl 1.73/Senk 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.5%
Fencl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Fencl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 4 · 08:19P. Fencl—1111113J. Senk—7960
WSep 4 · 07:15P. Fencl—11811113J. Senk—911781
LAug 9 · 12:45P. Fencl—111151172J. Senk—139116103
WAug 9 · 11:45P. Fencl—1111113J. Senk—8680
P. Fencl10
WSep 4 · 08:19J. Senk2.107960P. Fencl1.671111113LSep 4 · 06:15P. Fencl2.201111115102M. Vyskocil1.61613911123LSep 4 · 05:15P. Fencl1.8011111010102T. Liska1.91761212123LAug 27 · 08:18P. Fencl1.73917781M. Ullman2.00111511113LAug 27 · 07:45V. Grubr2.1041115113P. Fencl1.671171341LAug 27 · 06:45M. Vyskocil1.9181111113P. Fencl1.80118331WAug 27 · 05:15M. Ullman1.738480P. Fencl2.001111113WAug 17 · 08:13P. Fencl2.101111113J. Rochowanski1.676920LAug 17 · 07:15J. Rochowanski1.73591211113P. Fencl2.00111110392LAug 17 · 06:45P. Fencl2.50761181L. Rulc1.5011116113
J. Senk10
LSep 5 · 20:13J. Senk2.10411491L. Veigl1.6711711113LSep 5 · 19:45J. Senk2.755820J. Sr1.401111113LSep 5 · 18:15L. Veigl1.801111113J. Senk1.917890LSep 5 · 17:45O. Mezera2.00115811113J. Senk1.7341111862LSep 4 · 08:19J. Senk2.107960P. Fencl1.671111113LSep 4 · 06:45J. Senk2.207990T. Liska1.611111113LSep 4 · 05:45J. Senk1.7311860M. Vyskocil2.001311113LAug 23 · 12:53R. Pisa1.7311119113J. Senk2.00571191WAug 23 · 11:15O. Mezera2.2019760J. Senk1.612111113WAug 23 · 10:45J. Senk2.5011116113M. Kocvara1.50781131
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