TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12445108
Played Aug 17Finished
Jan Rochowanski
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
5119111210113119
Pavel Fencl
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:06 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePavel Fencl to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJan Rochowanski above · Pavel Fencl below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 92 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Pavel Fencl at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Jan Rochowanski 1–1 Pavel Fencl Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:06What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Rochowanski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Rochowanski 1666 vs Fencl 1578
Rochowanski
Correct
both rated, 88 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rochowanski 60% vs Fencl 40%
Rochowanski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rochowanski 40% vs Fencl 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rochowanski +3 · Fencl -1
Rochowanski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Rochowanski) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRochowanski 1.73 / Fencl 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Rochowanski)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #12445108
Rochowanski1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 22 of 38
Up 2–0, closes it82% 9 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it76% 16 of 21
Fencl2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog39% won 7 of 18
Down 0–1, comes back17% 2 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeRochowanski1wins
AwayFencl1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricRochowanskiFenclR − FBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match32.538.5−6.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRochowanskiFenclBasisWin rate · lifetime87 / 177 vs 41 / 8349.2%49.4%87 / 177 vs 41 / 83Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RochowanskiRochowanski 1.73/Fencl 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Rochowanski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Rochowanski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 17 · 08:13J. Rochowanski—6920P. Fencl—1111113
WAug 17 · 07:15J. Rochowanski—591211113P. Fencl—111110392
J. Rochowanski10
LAug 17 · 08:13P. Fencl2.101111113J. Rochowanski1.676920WAug 17 · 06:15J. Rochowanski1.6711118113T. Liska2.10581181WAug 17 · 05:15J. Rochowanski1.80101111123L. Rulc1.911273101WAug 14 · 08:48L. Adam1.676118101J. Rochowanski2.1011711123LAug 14 · 07:45J. Rochowanski1.919118101L. Adam1.8011911123LAug 14 · 06:15P. Wasik1.3361114113J. Rochowanski3.251131261LAug 14 · 05:45L. Dobias1.501111113J. Rochowanski2.503990WAug 5 · 12:49M. Makara2.2581271282J. Rochowanski1.5711101110113LAug 5 · 11:45J. Rochowanski1.6710811151M. Makara2.1012116173LAug 5 · 10:15M. Kocvara1.50117811123J. Rochowanski2.50811117102
P. Fencl10
WSep 4 · 08:19J. Senk2.107960P. Fencl1.671111113WSep 4 · 07:15P. Fencl1.7311811113J. Senk2.00911781LSep 4 · 06:15P. Fencl2.201111115102M. Vyskocil1.61613911123LSep 4 · 05:15P. Fencl1.8011111010102T. Liska1.91761212123LAug 27 · 08:18P. Fencl1.73917781M. Ullman2.00111511113LAug 27 · 07:45V. Grubr2.1041115113P. Fencl1.671171341LAug 27 · 06:45M. Vyskocil1.9181111113P. Fencl1.80118331WAug 27 · 05:15M. Ullman1.738480P. Fencl2.001111113WAug 17 · 08:13P. Fencl2.101111113J. Rochowanski1.676920LAug 17 · 06:45P. Fencl2.50761181L. Rulc1.5011116113
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