TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12428586
Played Aug 14Finished
Ladislav Dobias
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
113119119––––
Jan Rochowanski
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:41 and never touched — 70.5% is still 70.5%
Graded at full timeLadislav Dobias to win
70.5%
70.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLadislav Dobias above · Jan Rochowanski below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 54 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Ladislav Dobias at 70.5%
54 points played in total.
H2H Ladislav Dobias 11–6 Jan Rochowanski Jan Rochowanski has won 6 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:41What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Dobias
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-6 in 17
Dobias
Correct
gap of 5 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dobias 1769 vs Rochowanski 1668
Dobias
Correct
both rated, 101 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dobias 60% vs Rochowanski 40%
Dobias
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dobias 70% vs Rochowanski 40%
Dobias
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dobias +2 · Rochowanski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Dobias)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDobias 1.50 / Rochowanski 2.50
Signal prob.71% / 30%
Edge (Dobias)+8.0pp
Setka Cup · #12428586
Dobias1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite58% won 221 of 379
Up 2–0, closes it92% 69 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it78% 154 of 198
Rochowanski2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog57% won 38 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back35% 10 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDobias7wins
AwayRochowanski3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDobias leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDobias100%5 of 5
AwayRochowanski60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dobias5Rochowanski5n = 10split evenly
S2Dobias6Rochowanski4n = 10Dobias took 6 of 10
S3Dobias8Rochowanski2n = 10Dobias took 8 of 10
S4Dobias8Rochowanski0n = 8Dobias took 8 of 8
S5Dobias0Rochowanski3n = 3Rochowanski took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDobiasRochowanskiD − RBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.635.7+5.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDobiasRochowanskiBasisWin rate · lifetime387 / 695 vs 83 / 16955.7%49.1%387 / 695 vs 83 / 169Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match41.138.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DobiasDobias 1.50/Rochowanski 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.5%
Dobias · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Dobias won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 17 · 05:45L. Dobias—111011113J. Rochowanski—512731
LJul 16 · 11:45L. Dobias—71181192J. Rochowanski—119116113
WJul 13 · 09:15L. Dobias—1111113J. Rochowanski—9880
WJul 10 · 09:45L. Dobias—11411113J. Rochowanski—511791
LJun 25 · 10:00L. Dobias—981111112J. Rochowanski—111168133
WJun 23 · 06:15L. Dobias—111011113J. Rochowanski—712871
WApr 27 · 08:53L. Dobias—1111143J. Rochowanski—94120
WApr 27 · 06:15L. Dobias—81111113J. Rochowanski—117941
WApr 15 · 09:13L. Dobias—31111133J. Rochowanski—1176111
LApr 15 · 07:00L. Dobias—711111192J. Rochowanski—118138113
L. Dobias10
LAug 28 · 08:23L. Dobias1.57117681M. Zelinka2.2591111113WAug 28 · 07:45L. Dobias1.73911913113V. Burylov2.00115111192LAug 28 · 06:15P. Wasik1.8311711113L. Dobias1.83711681LAug 28 · 05:45M. Zelinka2.1081111123L. Dobias1.671194101WAug 26 · 12:13L. Dobias1.91911712113P. Wasik1.80115111062LAug 26 · 11:45L. Heinzl2.251213113L. Dobias1.57101190WAug 26 · 10:45M. Kocvara2.5031111982L. Dobias1.50119611113WAug 26 · 09:15P. Wasik1.808880L. Dobias1.911111113WAug 25 · 08:53M. Zelinka2.1061111532L. Dobias1.67113811113LAug 25 · 07:45L. Dobias1.61111091152M. Zelinka2.20912113113
J. Rochowanski10
LAug 17 · 08:13P. Fencl2.101111113J. Rochowanski1.676920WAug 17 · 07:15J. Rochowanski1.73591211113P. Fencl2.00111110392WAug 17 · 06:15J. Rochowanski1.6711118113T. Liska2.10581181WAug 17 · 05:15J. Rochowanski1.80101111123L. Rulc1.911273101WAug 14 · 08:48L. Adam1.676118101J. Rochowanski2.1011711123LAug 14 · 07:45J. Rochowanski1.919118101L. Adam1.8011911123LAug 14 · 06:15P. Wasik1.3361114113J. Rochowanski3.251131261WAug 5 · 12:49M. Makara2.2581271282J. Rochowanski1.5711101110113LAug 5 · 11:45J. Rochowanski1.6710811151M. Makara2.1012116173LAug 5 · 10:15M. Kocvara1.50117811123J. Rochowanski2.50811117102
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