TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12428565
Played Aug 14Finished
Petr Wasik
Home
1.33
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
6111131412116––
Jan Rochowanski
Away
3.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:32 and never touched — 77.9% is still 77.9%
Graded at full timePetr Wasik to win
77.9%
77.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Wasik above · Jan Rochowanski below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 74 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Petr Wasik at 77.9%
74 points played in total.
H2H Petr Wasik 3–2 Jan Rochowanski Jan Rochowanski has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:32What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Wasik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wasik 1847 vs Rochowanski 1657
Wasik
Correct
both rated, 190 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wasik 60% vs Rochowanski 20%
Wasik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wasik 70% vs Rochowanski 30%
Wasik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Wasik +1 · Rochowanski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Wasik) · live re-read · sealed at 78% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rochowanski form (20%) is below what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWasik 1.33 / Rochowanski 3.25
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Wasik)+1.0pp
Setka Cup · #12428565
Wasik1.33
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 43 of 67
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it86% 31 of 36
Rochowanski3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog52% won 35 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back25% 7 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeWasik3wins
AwayRochowanski2wins
1 of 5 to a deciderWasik leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWasik66.7%2 of 3
AwayRochowanskin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wasik3Rochowanski2n = 5Wasik took 3 of 5
S2Wasik4Rochowanski1n = 5Wasik took 4 of 5
S3Wasik3Rochowanski2n = 5Wasik took 3 of 5
S4Wasik2Rochowanski1n = 3Wasik took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricWasikRochowanskiW − RBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match40.033.0+7.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWasikRochowanskiBasisWin rate · lifetime68 / 109 vs 84 / 17362.4%48.6%68 / 109 vs 84 / 173Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.938.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WasikWasik 1.33/Rochowanski 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.9%
Wasik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Wasik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 14 · 06:15P. Wasik—61114113J. Rochowanski—1131261
WJul 9 · 06:15P. Wasik—1111113J. Rochowanski—7830
LJul 1 · 05:15P. Wasik—10111011102J. Rochowanski—126125123
WApr 13 · 08:48P. Wasik—1111123J. Rochowanski—86100
LApr 13 · 07:45P. Wasik—11125111J. Rochowanski—61411133
P. Wasik10
WSep 7 · 08:18L. Veigl2.758670P. Wasik1.401111113WSep 7 · 07:15P. Wasik1.611211113L. Veigl2.2010850LSep 7 · 06:15P. Wasik1.531410981L. Heinzl2.38121211113WSep 7 · 05:15P. Wasik1.531110117113M. Zelinka2.3831281182WAug 28 · 08:53V. Burylov2.3810960P. Wasik1.531211113WAug 28 · 07:15P. Wasik1.6111911113M. Zelinka2.20311921WAug 28 · 06:15P. Wasik1.8311711113L. Dobias1.83711681LAug 28 · 05:15P. Wasik1.44910110V. Burylov2.631112133LAug 26 · 12:13L. Dobias1.91911712113P. Wasik1.80115111062LAug 26 · 11:15P. Wasik1.441191271M. Kocvara2.6361114113
J. Rochowanski10
LAug 17 · 08:13P. Fencl2.101111113J. Rochowanski1.676920WAug 17 · 07:15J. Rochowanski1.73591211113P. Fencl2.00111110392WAug 17 · 06:15J. Rochowanski1.6711118113T. Liska2.10581181WAug 17 · 05:15J. Rochowanski1.80101111123L. Rulc1.911273101WAug 14 · 08:48L. Adam1.676118101J. Rochowanski2.1011711123LAug 14 · 07:45J. Rochowanski1.919118101L. Adam1.8011911123LAug 14 · 05:45L. Dobias1.501111113J. Rochowanski2.503990WAug 5 · 12:49M. Makara2.2581271282J. Rochowanski1.5711101110113LAug 5 · 11:45J. Rochowanski1.6710811151M. Makara2.1012116173LAug 5 · 10:15M. Kocvara1.50117811123J. Rochowanski2.50811117102
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