TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12445076
Played Aug 17Finished
Jan Rochowanski
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115118811118––
Tomas Liska
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:04 and never touched — 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeJan Rochowanski to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Rochowanski above · Tomas Liska below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 73 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Jan Rochowanski at 56.8%
73 points played in total.
H2H Jan Rochowanski 15–9 Tomas Liska Tomas Liska has won 9 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:04What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Rochowanski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-9 in 24
Rochowanski
Correct
gap of 6 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rochowanski 1666 vs Liska 1592
Rochowanski
Correct
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rochowanski 40% vs Liska 20%
Rochowanski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rochowanski 40% vs Liska 20%
Rochowanski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rochowanski +2 · Liska -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Rochowanski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Liska form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRochowanski 1.67 / Liska 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Rochowanski)+1.0pp
Setka Cup · #12445076
Rochowanski1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 22 of 38
Up 2–0, closes it82% 9 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it76% 16 of 21
Liska2.10
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 103 of 255
Down 0–1, comes back18% 26 of 144
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRochowanski8wins
AwayLiska2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderRochowanski leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRochowanski100%7 of 7
AwayLiska66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rochowanski7Liska3n = 10Rochowanski took 7 of 10
S2Rochowanski5Liska5n = 10split evenly
S3Rochowanski5Liska5n = 10split evenly
S4Rochowanski5Liska2n = 7Rochowanski took 5 of 7
S5Rochowanski3Liska0n = 3Rochowanski took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRochowanskiLiskaR − LBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.438.1+1.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRochowanskiLiskaBasisWin rate · lifetime87 / 177 vs 411 / 89449.2%46%87 / 177 vs 411 / 894Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.640.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RochowanskiRochowanski 1.67/Liska 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.8%
Rochowanski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Rochowanski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 17 · 06:15J. Rochowanski—11118113T. Liska—581181
WJul 3 · 10:30J. Rochowanski—1112113T. Liska—41090
WApr 27 · 05:45J. Rochowanski—12511113T. Liska—1011651
WApr 20 · 10:45J. Rochowanski—137911113T. Liska—111111862
WApr 1 · 06:30J. Rochowanski—11175113T. Liska—8151191
WFeb 23 · 14:00J. Rochowanski—1611113T. Liska—14990
LFeb 23 · 10:30J. Rochowanski—891371T. Liska—111111113
WFeb 16 · 11:15J. Rochowanski—115116113T. Liska—91191172
LOct 20 · 08:32J. Rochowanski—61100T. Liska—1111123
WOct 20 · 06:30J. Rochowanski—1013411113T. Liska—121111582
J. Rochowanski10
LAug 17 · 08:13P. Fencl2.101111113J. Rochowanski1.676920WAug 17 · 07:15J. Rochowanski1.73591211113P. Fencl2.00111110392WAug 17 · 05:15J. Rochowanski1.80101111123L. Rulc1.911273101WAug 14 · 08:48L. Adam1.676118101J. Rochowanski2.1011711123LAug 14 · 07:45J. Rochowanski1.919118101L. Adam1.8011911123LAug 14 · 06:15P. Wasik1.3361114113J. Rochowanski3.251131261LAug 14 · 05:45L. Dobias1.501111113J. Rochowanski2.503990WAug 5 · 12:49M. Makara2.2581271282J. Rochowanski1.5711101110113LAug 5 · 11:45J. Rochowanski1.6710811151M. Makara2.1012116173LAug 5 · 10:15M. Kocvara1.50117811123J. Rochowanski2.50811117102
T. Liska10
LSep 4 · 08:48T. Liska1.91911981M. Vyskocil1.8011811113WSep 4 · 07:45M. Vyskocil1.73101090T. Liska2.001212113WSep 4 · 06:45J. Senk2.207990T. Liska1.611111113WSep 4 · 05:15P. Fencl1.8011111010102T. Liska1.91761212123LSep 3 · 20:43T. Liska1.919101161M. Vyskocil1.8011126113WSep 3 · 19:45T. Liska2.201111113R. Pisa1.617990WSep 3 · 18:15M. Vyskocil1.67117117112T. Liska2.10711811133WSep 3 · 17:45A. Snr1.83119561T. Liska1.8371111113WSep 1 · 12:23T. Liska1.5391111123A. Radkovsky2.381176101LSep 1 · 11:45L. Rulc1.67121189123T. Liska2.101041111102
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