TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12362816
Played Aug 5Finished
Jan Rochowanski
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
10128111161517––
Michal Makara
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:07 and never touched — 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeJan Rochowanski to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJan Rochowanski above · Michal Makara below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 15-17
Point 90 set 4, 15-17 — our read held Jan Rochowanski at 56.8%
90 points played in total.
H2H Jan Rochowanski 6–10 Michal Makara Jan Rochowanski has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:07What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Rochowanski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-10 in 16
Makara
Correct
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rochowanski 1657 vs Makara 1675
Makara
Correct
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rochowanski 20% vs Makara 40%
Makara
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rochowanski 30% vs Makara 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rochowanski -2 · Makara -3
Makara
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Rochowanski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rochowanski form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRochowanski 1.67 / Makara 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Rochowanski)+1.0pp
Setka Cup · #12362816
Rochowanski1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite54% won 19 of 35
Up 2–0, closes it80% 8 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it68% 15 of 22
Makara2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 185 of 392
Down 0–1, comes back27% 54 of 201
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 92
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRochowanski4wins
AwayMakara6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMakara leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRochowanski80%4 of 5
AwayMakara100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rochowanski5Makara5n = 10split evenly
S2Rochowanski5Makara5n = 10split evenly
S3Rochowanski5Makara5n = 10split evenly
S4Rochowanski3Makara3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRochowanskiMakaraR − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.337.6−0.3per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRochowanskiMakaraBasisWin rate · lifetime82 / 168 vs 470 / 96648.8%48.7%82 / 168 vs 470 / 966Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.739.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RochowanskiRochowanski 1.67/Makara 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.8%
Rochowanski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Makara won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 5 · 11:45J. Rochowanski—10811151M. Makara—12116173
WAug 4 · 09:15J. Rochowanski—11117113M. Makara—671181
WJul 9 · 08:23J. Rochowanski—1111113M. Makara—8790
LJul 9 · 05:15J. Rochowanski—611117112M. Makara—114811133
LJun 23 · 05:15J. Rochowanski—11121091M. Makara—51412113
WDec 18 · 06:15J. Rochowanski—1111113M. Makara—5980
LDec 11 · 07:15J. Rochowanski—811121792M. Makara—1191415113
LNov 13 · 06:15J. Rochowanski—4870M. Makara—1111103
WOct 23 · 06:45J. Rochowanski—11511113M. Makara—911991
LSep 25 · 18:45J. Rochowanski—8760M. Makara—1111113
J. Rochowanski10
LAug 17 · 08:13P. Fencl2.101111113J. Rochowanski1.676920WAug 17 · 07:15J. Rochowanski1.73591211113P. Fencl2.00111110392WAug 17 · 06:15J. Rochowanski1.6711118113T. Liska2.10581181WAug 17 · 05:15J. Rochowanski1.80101111123L. Rulc1.911273101WAug 14 · 08:48L. Adam1.676118101J. Rochowanski2.1011711123LAug 14 · 07:45J. Rochowanski1.919118101L. Adam1.8011911123LAug 14 · 06:15P. Wasik1.3361114113J. Rochowanski3.251131261LAug 14 · 05:45L. Dobias1.501111113J. Rochowanski2.503990WAug 5 · 12:49M. Makara2.2581271282J. Rochowanski1.5711101110113LAug 5 · 10:15M. Kocvara1.50117811123J. Rochowanski2.50811117102
M. Makara10
WSep 4 · 12:29M. Makara2.101211113V. Burylov1.6710940LSep 4 · 12:00M. Makara2.006650L. Adam1.731111113LSep 4 · 10:30V. Burylov1.611171114113M. Makara2.2061171692LSep 4 · 10:00M. Kocvara1.731113123M. Makara2.00611100WSep 3 · 08:14L. Heinzl1.6781181182M. Makara2.10116113113LSep 3 · 07:15L. Adam1.731151211113M. Makara2.0091114772LSep 3 · 06:45M. Makara2.6311970M. Stibor1.441311113LSep 3 · 05:45M. Makara2.201131191L. Heinzl1.6113119113LSep 1 · 08:21M. Makara2.7551211472M. Kocvara1.401110911113LAug 5 · 12:49M. Makara2.2581271282J. Rochowanski1.5711101110113
Upcoming Matches
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M. Makara
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