TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12445052
Played Aug 17Finished
Jan Rochowanski
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
10121171131210––
Lukas Rulc
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:53 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Rulc to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJan Rochowanski above · Lukas Rulc below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 76 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Lukas Rulc at 54.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Jan Rochowanski 10–5 Lukas Rulc Lukas Rulc has won 5 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:53What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Rochowanski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-5 in 15
Rochowanski
Correct
gap of 5 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rochowanski 1669 vs Rulc 1635
Rochowanski
Correct
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rochowanski 40% vs Rulc 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rochowanski 30% vs Rulc 50%
Rulc
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rochowanski +1 · Rulc +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Rulc)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rulc form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRochowanski 1.80 / Rulc 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Rulc)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #12445052
Rochowanski1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite54% won 20 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it80% 8 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it70% 16 of 23
Rulc1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 63 of 146
Down 0–1, comes back15% 9 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRochowanski8wins
AwayRulc2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderRochowanski leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRochowanski80%4 of 5
AwayRulc20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rochowanski5Rulc5n = 10split evenly
S2Rochowanski5Rulc5n = 10split evenly
S3Rochowanski6Rulc4n = 10Rochowanski took 6 of 10
S4Rochowanski7Rulc2n = 9Rochowanski took 7 of 9
S5Rochowanski3Rulc1n = 4Rochowanski took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRochowanskiRulcRochowanski − RulcBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.737.7+5.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRochowanskiRulcBasisWin rate · lifetime85 / 174 vs 350 / 69948.9%50.1%85 / 174 vs 350 / 699Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.739.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RulcRochowanski 1.80/Rulc 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Rulc · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Rochowanski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 17 · 05:15J. Rochowanski—101111123L. Rulc—1273101
WJun 25 · 10:30J. Rochowanski—119115113L. Rulc—91171142
LJun 23 · 08:13J. Rochowanski—61290L. Rulc—1114113
WJun 23 · 07:15J. Rochowanski—111179113L. Rulc—97111172
WApr 20 · 12:54J. Rochowanski—11713113L. Rulc—4111191
WApr 20 · 09:45J. Rochowanski—71111113L. Rulc—119431
LMar 30 · 07:15J. Rochowanski—115511102L. Rulc—811115123
WFeb 23 · 12:30J. Rochowanski—11711113L. Rulc—611851
WFeb 16 · 10:15J. Rochowanski—1011911113L. Rulc—12611792
WNov 3 · 12:30J. Rochowanski—61314113L. Rulc—11111241
J. Rochowanski10
LAug 17 · 08:13P. Fencl2.101111113J. Rochowanski1.676920WAug 17 · 07:15J. Rochowanski1.73591211113P. Fencl2.00111110392WAug 17 · 06:15J. Rochowanski1.6711118113T. Liska2.10581181WAug 14 · 08:48L. Adam1.676118101J. Rochowanski2.1011711123LAug 14 · 07:45J. Rochowanski1.919118101L. Adam1.8011911123LAug 14 · 06:15P. Wasik1.3361114113J. Rochowanski3.251131261LAug 14 · 05:45L. Dobias1.501111113J. Rochowanski2.503990WAug 5 · 12:49M. Makara2.2581271282J. Rochowanski1.5711101110113LAug 5 · 11:45J. Rochowanski1.6710811151M. Makara2.1012116173LAug 5 · 10:15M. Kocvara1.50117811123J. Rochowanski2.50811117102
L. Rulc10
LSep 1 · 12:54L. Rulc1.831111810102V. Grubr1.83881112123WSep 1 · 11:45L. Rulc1.67121189123T. Liska2.101041111102WSep 1 · 10:15V. Grubr1.834116101L. Rulc1.8311511123LSep 1 · 09:45A. Radkovsky2.101111113L. Rulc1.677660LAug 31 · 12:48M. Kocvara2.631111113L. Rulc1.447870WAug 31 · 11:45L. Rulc1.6711711113M. Kocvara2.10811671LAug 31 · 10:15M. Stibor1.501161111123L. Rulc2.50131197102LAug 31 · 09:45M. Vyskocil2.75139114113L. Rulc1.40111181132LAug 29 · 13:05M. Makara1.801512113L. Rulc1.91131090WAug 29 · 12:00L. Rulc1.91118911113M. Makara1.8091111662
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