TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12428110
Played Aug 14Finished
Jan Rochowanski
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111198111012––
Lukas Adam
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:25 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Adam to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Rochowanski above · Lukas Adam below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 81 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Lukas Adam at 54.0%
81 points played in total.
H2H Jan Rochowanski 11–9 Lukas Adam Lukas Adam has won 9 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:25What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Adam
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-9 in 20
Rochowanski
Wrong
gap of 2 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rochowanski 1657 vs Adam 1721
Adam
Correct
both rated, 64 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rochowanski 20% vs Adam 60%
Adam
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rochowanski 30% vs Adam 60%
Adam
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rochowanski -2 · Adam +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Adam) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rochowanski form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRochowanski 1.91 / Adam 1.80
Signal prob.42% / 59%
Edge (Adam)+7.0pp
Setka Cup · #12428110
Rochowanski1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog52% won 35 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back25% 7 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Adam1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 67 of 111
Up 2–0, closes it100% 28 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it87% 46 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRochowanski4wins
AwayAdam6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderAdam leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRochowanski80%4 of 5
AwayAdam100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rochowanski5Adam5n = 10split evenly
S2Rochowanski6Adam4n = 10Rochowanski took 6 of 10
S3Rochowanski5Adam5n = 10split evenly
S4Rochowanski2Adam4n = 6Adam took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRochowanskiAdamR − ABasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.635.1−0.5per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRochowanskiAdamBasisWin rate · lifetime84 / 173 vs 277 / 53648.6%51.7%84 / 173 vs 277 / 536Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.640.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamRochowanski 1.91/Adam 1.80
Hit
What we said
58.5%
Adam · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Adam won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 14 · 08:48J. Rochowanski—11711123L. Adam—6118101
LAug 14 · 07:45J. Rochowanski—9118101L. Adam—11911123
LJul 17 · 06:45J. Rochowanski—8101171L. Adam—11129113
WJul 14 · 09:09J. Rochowanski—1111113L. Adam—5660
LJul 14 · 06:00J. Rochowanski—111110572L. Adam—671211113
LJul 13 · 10:15J. Rochowanski—41412952L. Adam—11121011113
WJul 10 · 12:14J. Rochowanski—111111113L. Adam—771341
WJul 10 · 10:15J. Rochowanski—1111113L. Adam—5720
LDec 11 · 09:45J. Rochowanski—5370L. Adam—1111113
LDec 11 · 08:45J. Rochowanski—9450L. Adam—1111113
J. Rochowanski10
LAug 17 · 08:13P. Fencl2.101111113J. Rochowanski1.676920WAug 17 · 07:15J. Rochowanski1.73591211113P. Fencl2.00111110392WAug 17 · 06:15J. Rochowanski1.6711118113T. Liska2.10581181WAug 17 · 05:15J. Rochowanski1.80101111123L. Rulc1.911273101WAug 14 · 08:48L. Adam1.676118101J. Rochowanski2.1011711123LAug 14 · 06:15P. Wasik1.3361114113J. Rochowanski3.251131261LAug 14 · 05:45L. Dobias1.501111113J. Rochowanski2.503990WAug 5 · 12:49M. Makara2.2581271282J. Rochowanski1.5711101110113LAug 5 · 11:45J. Rochowanski1.6710811151M. Makara2.1012116173LAug 5 · 10:15M. Kocvara1.50117811123J. Rochowanski2.50811117102
L. Adam10
LSep 6 · 12:54J. Sr1.611311113L. Adam2.2011760WSep 6 · 11:15O. Mezera2.20811771L. Adam1.6111511113WSep 6 · 10:45L. Adam1.801111113M. Kocvara1.919480LSep 6 · 09:45L. Adam2.104760J. Sr1.671111113WSep 4 · 12:59L. Adam2.201111113M. Kocvara1.617480WSep 4 · 12:00M. Makara2.006650L. Adam1.731111113LSep 4 · 11:00M. Kocvara1.67115211113L. Adam2.1031111742WSep 4 · 09:30V. Burylov1.801141151L. Adam1.9181113113WSep 3 · 08:44M. Stibor1.67681491L. Adam2.10111112113LAug 14 · 08:48L. Adam1.676118101J. Rochowanski2.1011711123
Upcoming Matches
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L. Adam
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