TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12362741
Played Aug 5Finished
Martin Kocvara
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1187118111171210
Jan Rochowanski
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:58 and never touched — 57.2% is still 57.2%
Graded at full timeMartin Kocvara to win
57.2%
57.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Kocvara above · Jan Rochowanski below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 96 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Martin Kocvara at 57.2%
96 points played in total.
H2H Martin Kocvara 2–0 Jan Rochowanski Jan Rochowanski has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:58What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Kocvara
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kocvara 1836 vs Rochowanski 1669
Kocvara
Correct
both rated, 167 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kocvara 60% vs Rochowanski 40%
Kocvara
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kocvara 80% vs Rochowanski 40%
Kocvara
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kocvara +1 · Rochowanski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Kocvara) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKocvara 1.50 / Rochowanski 2.50
Signal prob.70% / 31%
Edge (Kocvara)+7.0pp
Setka Cup · #12362741
Kocvara1.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite77% won 17 of 22
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it87% 13 of 15
Rochowanski2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog59% won 38 of 65
Down 0–1, comes back37% 10 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKocvara2wins
AwayRochowanski0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderKocvara leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricKocvaraRochowanskiK − RBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match41.033.0+8.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKocvaraRochowanskiBasisWin rate · lifetime51 / 82 vs 82 / 16762.2%49.1%51 / 82 vs 82 / 167Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.538.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KocvaraKocvara 1.50/Rochowanski 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.5%
Kocvara · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kocvara won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 5 · 10:15M. Kocvara—117811123J. Rochowanski—811117102
WJul 9 · 07:15M. Kocvara—1111113J. Rochowanski—6850
M. Kocvara10
WSep 6 · 12:24M. Kocvara1.53119113113O. Mezera2.3871191172LSep 6 · 11:45J. Sr1.40111112113M. Kocvara2.75761481LSep 6 · 10:45L. Adam1.801111113M. Kocvara1.919480WSep 6 · 09:15O. Mezera2.208990M. Kocvara1.611111113LSep 4 · 12:59L. Adam2.201111113M. Kocvara1.617480WSep 4 · 11:30V. Burylov1.80991181M. Kocvara1.9111113113WSep 4 · 11:00M. Kocvara1.67115211113L. Adam2.1031111742WSep 4 · 10:00M. Kocvara1.731113123M. Makara2.00611100WSep 1 · 08:21M. Makara2.7551211472M. Kocvara1.401110911113LSep 1 · 07:15M. Kocvara1.6711891172M. Makara2.10911118113
J. Rochowanski10
LAug 17 · 08:13P. Fencl2.101111113J. Rochowanski1.676920WAug 17 · 07:15J. Rochowanski1.73591211113P. Fencl2.00111110392WAug 17 · 06:15J. Rochowanski1.6711118113T. Liska2.10581181WAug 17 · 05:15J. Rochowanski1.80101111123L. Rulc1.911273101WAug 14 · 08:48L. Adam1.676118101J. Rochowanski2.1011711123LAug 14 · 07:45J. Rochowanski1.919118101L. Adam1.8011911123LAug 14 · 06:15P. Wasik1.3361114113J. Rochowanski3.251131261LAug 14 · 05:45L. Dobias1.501111113J. Rochowanski2.503990WAug 5 · 12:49M. Makara2.2581271282J. Rochowanski1.5711101110113LAug 5 · 11:45J. Rochowanski1.6710811151M. Makara2.1012116173
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