TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049335
Played Aug 31Finished
Lukas Rulc
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118711116117––
Martin Kocvara
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:47 and never touched — 62.1% is still 62.1%
Graded at full timeLukas Rulc to win
62.1%
62.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Rulc above · Martin Kocvara below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 72 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Lukas Rulc at 62.1%
72 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Rulc 5–3 Martin Kocvara Martin Kocvara has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:47What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Rulc
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Rulc
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rulc 1599 vs Kocvara 1756
Kocvara
Wrong
both rated, 157 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rulc 40% vs Kocvara 80%
Kocvara
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rulc 40% vs Kocvara 60%
Kocvara
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rulc -3 · Kocvara +1
Rulc
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Rulc) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kocvara form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRulc 1.67 / Kocvara 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Rulc)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13049335
Rulc1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 105 of 185
Up 2–0, closes it85% 46 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it69% 74 of 107
Kocvara2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog58% won 46 of 80
Down 0–1, comes back49% 20 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back28% 5 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeRulc5wins
AwayKocvara3wins
2 of 8 to a deciderRulc leads 5–3, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRulc40%2 of 5
AwayKocvara0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rulc5Kocvara3n = 8Rulc took 5 of 8
S2Rulc4Kocvara4n = 8split evenly
S3Rulc4Kocvara4n = 8split evenly
S4Rulc5Kocvara3n = 8Rulc took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home450%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricRulcKocvaraR − KBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match40.938.1+2.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRulcKocvaraBasisWin rate · lifetime348 / 702 vs 71 / 12249.6%58.2%348 / 702 vs 71 / 122Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.740.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RulcRulc 1.67/Kocvara 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Rulc · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Rulc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 9 · 20:44L. Rulc—115871M. Kocvara—71111113
WAug 9 · 19:45L. Rulc—81111123M. Kocvara—1156101
LJun 28 · 08:00L. Rulc—117971M. Kocvara—61111113
WJun 18 · 08:13L. Rulc—11811113M. Kocvara—711551
WJun 18 · 07:15L. Rulc—41111113M. Kocvara—119361
LJun 17 · 05:15L. Rulc—11613972M. Kocvara—9111111113
WJun 7 · 12:29L. Rulc—11119113M. Kocvara—881151
WJun 7 · 11:15L. Rulc—711711183M. Kocvara—117117162
L. Rulc10
LSep 1 · 12:54L. Rulc1.831111810102V. Grubr1.83881112123WSep 1 · 11:45L. Rulc1.67121189123T. Liska2.101041111102WSep 1 · 10:15V. Grubr1.834116101L. Rulc1.8311511123LSep 1 · 09:45A. Radkovsky2.101111113L. Rulc1.677660LAug 31 · 12:48M. Kocvara2.631111113L. Rulc1.447870LAug 31 · 10:15M. Stibor1.501161111123L. Rulc2.50131197102LAug 31 · 09:45M. Vyskocil2.75139114113L. Rulc1.40111181132LAug 29 · 13:05M. Makara1.801512113L. Rulc1.91131090WAug 29 · 12:00L. Rulc1.91118911113M. Makara1.8091111662WAug 29 · 10:30T. Liska2.2511981142L. Rulc1.57911119113
M. Kocvara10
WSep 6 · 12:24M. Kocvara1.53119113113O. Mezera2.3871191172LSep 6 · 11:45J. Sr1.40111112113M. Kocvara2.75761481LSep 6 · 10:45L. Adam1.801111113M. Kocvara1.919480WSep 6 · 09:15O. Mezera2.208990M. Kocvara1.611111113LSep 4 · 12:59L. Adam2.201111113M. Kocvara1.617480WSep 4 · 11:30V. Burylov1.80991181M. Kocvara1.9111113113WSep 4 · 11:00M. Kocvara1.67115211113L. Adam2.1031111742WSep 4 · 10:00M. Kocvara1.731113123M. Makara2.00611100WSep 1 · 08:21M. Makara2.7551211472M. Kocvara1.401110911113WAug 31 · 12:48M. Kocvara2.631111113L. Rulc1.447870
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