TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13007354
Played Aug 25Finished
Ladislav Dobias
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1191012911113511
Matus Zelinka
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:45 and never touched — 60.7% is still 60.7%
Graded at full timeLadislav Dobias to win
60.7%
60.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLadislav Dobias above · Matus Zelinka below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 92 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Ladislav Dobias at 60.7%
92 points played in total.
H2H Ladislav Dobias 31–24 Matus Zelinka Matus Zelinka has won 24 of their 55 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:45What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Dobias
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
31-24 in 55
Dobias
Wrong
gap of 7 in 55, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dobias 1804 vs Zelinka 1739
Dobias
Wrong
both rated, 65 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dobias 80% vs Zelinka 40%
Dobias
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dobias 80% vs Zelinka 50%
Dobias
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dobias +3 · Zelinka -1
Dobias
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Dobias) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dobias form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDobias 1.61 / Zelinka 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Dobias)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13007354
Dobias1.61
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite59% won 220 of 372
Up 2–0, closes it93% 69 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it80% 155 of 193
Zelinka2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog56% won 33 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back41% 14 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDobias7wins
AwayZelinka3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDobias leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDobias85.7%6 of 7
AwayZelinka66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dobias7Zelinka3n = 10Dobias took 7 of 10
S2Dobias7Zelinka3n = 10Dobias took 7 of 10
S3Dobias5Zelinka5n = 10split evenly
S4Dobias3Zelinka2n = 5Dobias took 3 of 5
S5Dobias2Zelinka1n = 3Dobias took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDobiasZelinkaD − ZBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.732.5+4.2per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDobiasZelinkaBasisWin rate · lifetime406 / 727 vs 191 / 36455.9%52.5%406 / 727 vs 191 / 364Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match41.239.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DobiasDobias 1.61/Zelinka 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Dobias · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Zelinka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 25 · 08:53L. Dobias—113811113M. Zelinka—61111532
LAug 25 · 07:45L. Dobias—111091152M. Zelinka—912113113
WAug 24 · 06:15L. Dobias—1111123M. Zelinka—77100
WAug 7 · 08:38L. Dobias—1111113M. Zelinka—6690
LAug 7 · 06:30L. Dobias—7970M. Zelinka—1111113
WJul 29 · 05:15L. Dobias—1111113M. Zelinka—7490
LMay 10 · 12:18L. Dobias—811581M. Zelinka—11911113
WMay 10 · 11:15L. Dobias—1111113M. Zelinka—7870
WMay 6 · 12:29L. Dobias—81111113M. Zelinka—118781
WMay 6 · 11:15L. Dobias—1112113113M. Zelinka—710131162
L. Dobias10
LAug 28 · 08:23L. Dobias1.57117681M. Zelinka2.2591111113WAug 28 · 07:45L. Dobias1.73911913113V. Burylov2.00115111192LAug 28 · 06:15P. Wasik1.8311711113L. Dobias1.83711681LAug 28 · 05:45M. Zelinka2.1081111123L. Dobias1.671194101WAug 26 · 12:13L. Dobias1.91911712113P. Wasik1.80115111062LAug 26 · 11:45L. Heinzl2.251213113L. Dobias1.57101190WAug 26 · 10:45M. Kocvara2.5031111982L. Dobias1.50119611113WAug 26 · 09:15P. Wasik1.808880L. Dobias1.911111113WAug 25 · 08:53M. Zelinka2.1061111532L. Dobias1.67113811113WAug 25 · 06:15M. Stibor2.105680L. Dobias1.671111113
M. Zelinka10
LSep 7 · 06:45L. Veigl2.3811611113M. Zelinka1.53911951LSep 7 · 05:15P. Wasik1.531110117113M. Zelinka2.3831281182LSep 5 · 09:00L. Veigl2.2012611113M. Zelinka1.611011971WSep 5 · 07:15M. Zelinka2.001171312123D. Gasparovic1.739111114102LSep 5 · 06:15M. Zelinka1.50811881L. Veigl2.5011911113WSep 5 · 05:15M. Zelinka1.83611911113J. Chalupa1.8311811992LAug 30 · 08:28M. Zelinka1.73761181R. Pisa2.0011115113WAug 28 · 08:23L. Dobias1.57117681M. Zelinka2.2591111113WAug 28 · 05:45M. Zelinka2.1081111123L. Dobias1.671194101LAug 25 · 08:53M. Zelinka2.1061111532L. Dobias1.67113811113
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