TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13031400
Played Aug 28Finished
Ladislav Dobias
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111159111311119
Volodymyr Burylov
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:14 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeLadislav Dobias to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLadislav Dobias above · Volodymyr Burylov below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 100 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Ladislav Dobias at 56.5%
100 points played in total.
H2H Ladislav Dobias 24–21 Volodymyr Burylov Volodymyr Burylov has won 21 of their 45 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:14What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Dobias
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-21 in 45
Dobias
Correct
gap of 3 in 45, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dobias 1775 vs Burylov 1752
Dobias
Correct
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dobias 40% vs Burylov 60%
Burylov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dobias 60% vs Burylov 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dobias -2 · Burylov +3
Burylov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Dobias) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dobias form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDobias 1.73 / Burylov 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Dobias)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13031400
Dobias1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 217 of 368
Up 2–0, closes it93% 69 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it80% 154 of 193
Burylov2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog54% won 50 of 93
Down 0–1, comes back38% 18 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back25% 6 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDobias6wins
AwayBurylov4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDobias leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDobias60%3 of 5
AwayBurylov40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dobias5Burylov5n = 10split evenly
S2Dobias6Burylov4n = 10Dobias took 6 of 10
S3Dobias2Burylov8n = 10Burylov took 8 of 10
S4Dobias7Burylov1n = 8Dobias took 7 of 8
S5Dobias2Burylov2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricDobiasBurylovD − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.841.80.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDobiasBurylovBasisWin rate · lifetime407 / 731 vs 186 / 37155.7%50.1%407 / 731 vs 186 / 371Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match41.139.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DobiasDobias 1.73/Burylov 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Dobias · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Dobias won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 28 · 07:45L. Dobias—911913113V. Burylov—115111192
WAug 21 · 10:45L. Dobias—11154123V. Burylov—51311101
LJul 31 · 08:13L. Dobias—65100V. Burylov—1111123
LJul 31 · 05:45L. Dobias—11761172V. Burylov—911118113
WJul 28 · 06:15L. Dobias—611911113V. Burylov—11711962
LJul 27 · 19:45L. Dobias—1115116132V. Burylov—7131311153
WJul 21 · 15:45L. Dobias—15713113V. Burylov—13111181
WJul 20 · 16:43L. Dobias—121111133V. Burylov—1487111
WJul 20 · 15:45L. Dobias—11118113V. Burylov—551181
LJul 17 · 16:00L. Dobias—7780V. Burylov—1111113
L. Dobias10
LAug 28 · 08:23L. Dobias1.57117681M. Zelinka2.2591111113LAug 28 · 06:15P. Wasik1.8311711113L. Dobias1.83711681LAug 28 · 05:45M. Zelinka2.1081111123L. Dobias1.671194101WAug 26 · 12:13L. Dobias1.91911712113P. Wasik1.80115111062LAug 26 · 11:45L. Heinzl2.251213113L. Dobias1.57101190WAug 26 · 10:45M. Kocvara2.5031111982L. Dobias1.50119611113WAug 26 · 09:15P. Wasik1.808880L. Dobias1.911111113WAug 25 · 08:53M. Zelinka2.1061111532L. Dobias1.67113811113LAug 25 · 07:45L. Dobias1.61111091152M. Zelinka2.20912113113WAug 25 · 06:15M. Stibor2.105680L. Dobias1.671111113
V. Burylov10
WSep 6 · 17:00V. Burylov1.831111113D. Gasparovic1.838860WSep 6 · 15:45J. Chalupa1.80111011992V. Burylov1.91812911113WSep 6 · 14:45D. Gasparovic1.73136128112V. Burylov2.0011111011133LSep 6 · 13:15S. Rejent1.91691111153V. Burylov1.80111168132WSep 4 · 20:23V. Burylov1.7311911113A. Snr2.00611891WSep 4 · 19:45J. Sr1.9111117662V. Burylov1.80531111113LSep 4 · 18:45D. Gasparovic1.73111110143V. Burylov2.006912121LSep 4 · 12:29M. Makara2.101211113V. Burylov1.6710940LSep 4 · 11:30V. Burylov1.80991181M. Kocvara1.9111113113WSep 4 · 10:30V. Burylov1.611171114113M. Makara2.2061171692
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