TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073938
Played Sep 4Finished
David Gasparovic
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11611910121412––
Volodymyr Burylov
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:50 and never touched — 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeDavid Gasparovic to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Gasparovic above · Volodymyr Burylov below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 14-12
Point 85 set 4, 14-12 — our read held David Gasparovic at 54.3%
85 points played in total.
H2H David Gasparovic 5–6 Volodymyr Burylov David Gasparovic has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:50What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Gasparovic
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-6 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gasparovic 1730 vs Burylov 1722
Gasparovic
Correct
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gasparovic 40% vs Burylov 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gasparovic 60% vs Burylov 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gasparovic -1 · Burylov -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Gasparovic) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gasparovic form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGasparovic 1.73 / Burylov 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Gasparovic)+1.4pp
Setka Cup · #13073938
Gasparovic1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 50 of 85
Up 2–0, closes it81% 17 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it74% 32 of 43
Burylov2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog54% won 52 of 96
Down 0–1, comes back38% 18 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back25% 6 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGasparovic5wins
AwayBurylov5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGasparovic80%4 of 5
AwayBurylov80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gasparovic5Burylov5n = 10split evenly
S2Gasparovic6Burylov4n = 10Gasparovic took 6 of 10
S3Gasparovic4Burylov6n = 10Burylov took 6 of 10
S4Gasparovic3Burylov4n = 7Burylov took 4 of 7
S5Gasparovic2Burylov2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricGasparovicBurylovG − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.141.8+0.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGasparovicBurylovBasisWin rate · lifetime96 / 158 vs 194 / 38960.8%49.9%96 / 158 vs 194 / 389Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.139.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GasparovicGasparovic 1.73/Burylov 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.1%
Gasparovic · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Gasparovic won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 29 · 10:15D. Gasparovic—911118113V. Burylov—11991182
LAug 23 · 13:45D. Gasparovic—11114882V. Burylov—871111113
LAug 22 · 13:15D. Gasparovic—10980V. Burylov—1211113
WJul 19 · 13:09D. Gasparovic—111217113V. Burylov—4141541
LJul 19 · 10:30D. Gasparovic—9111011152V. Burylov—115128173
LJul 17 · 13:30D. Gasparovic—8117141V. Burylov—11711163
WJul 10 · 17:15D. Gasparovic—1211113V. Burylov—10780
LMay 23 · 20:20D. Gasparovic—5680V. Burylov—1111113
WMay 23 · 19:15D. Gasparovic—1311149113V. Burylov—1113121182
WMay 22 · 20:44D. Gasparovic—11148113V. Burylov—8121191
D. Gasparovic10
LSep 6 · 17:00V. Burylov1.831111113D. Gasparovic1.838860WSep 6 · 15:15S. Rejent2.63511951D. Gasparovic1.4411611113LSep 6 · 14:45D. Gasparovic1.73136128112V. Burylov2.0011111011133WSep 6 · 13:45D. Gasparovic2.1081111113J. Chalupa1.67116791LSep 5 · 08:29J. Chalupa1.61121211133D. Gasparovic2.20101013111LSep 5 · 07:15M. Zelinka2.001171312123D. Gasparovic1.739111114102LSep 5 · 06:45D. Gasparovic2.20911521J. Chalupa1.6111711113WSep 5 · 05:45D. Gasparovic1.361111113L. Veigl3.003930LSep 4 · 20:53J. Sr1.7311118113D. Gasparovic2.00761121WSep 4 · 19:15A. Snr2.50751191D. Gasparovic1.5011117113
V. Burylov10
WSep 6 · 17:00V. Burylov1.831111113D. Gasparovic1.838860WSep 6 · 15:45J. Chalupa1.80111011992V. Burylov1.91812911113WSep 6 · 14:45D. Gasparovic1.73136128112V. Burylov2.0011111011133LSep 6 · 13:15S. Rejent1.91691111153V. Burylov1.80111168132WSep 4 · 20:23V. Burylov1.7311911113A. Snr2.00611891WSep 4 · 19:45J. Sr1.9111117662V. Burylov1.80531111113LSep 4 · 12:29M. Makara2.101211113V. Burylov1.6710940LSep 4 · 11:30V. Burylov1.80991181M. Kocvara1.9111113113WSep 4 · 10:30V. Burylov1.611171114113M. Makara2.2061171692LSep 4 · 09:30V. Burylov1.801141151L. Adam1.9181113113
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