TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073753
Played Sep 4Finished
Jan Krames Sr
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
115113711611611
Volodymyr Burylov
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:18 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Burylov to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Krames Sr above · Volodymyr Burylov below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 82 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Volodymyr Burylov at 55.3%
82 points played in total.
H2H Jan Krames Sr 12–13 Volodymyr Burylov Jan Krames Sr has won 12 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:18What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Burylov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-13 in 25
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sr 1674 vs Burylov 1701
Burylov
Correct
both rated, 27 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sr 60% vs Burylov 20%
Sr
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sr 40% vs Burylov 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sr +3 · Burylov -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Burylov) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Burylov form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSr 1.91 / Burylov 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Burylov)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13073753
Sr1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 47 of 101
Down 0–1, comes back26% 13 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 25
Burylov1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite46% won 44 of 96
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it66% 29 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSr3wins
AwayBurylov7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBurylov leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSr50%2 of 4
AwayBurylov83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sr4Burylov6n = 10Burylov took 6 of 10
S2Sr7Burylov3n = 10Sr took 7 of 10
S3Sr4Burylov6n = 10Burylov took 6 of 10
S4Sr3Burylov4n = 7Burylov took 4 of 7
S5Sr0Burylov4n = 4Burylov took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSrBurylovS − BBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.038.7+0.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSrBurylovBasisWin rate · lifetime385 / 698 vs 194 / 38955.2%49.9%385 / 698 vs 194 / 389Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.739.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BurylovSr 1.91/Burylov 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Burylov · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Burylov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 20:18J. Sr—12470V. Burylov—1411113
LAug 30 · 17:45J. Sr—9111011102V. Burylov—117121123
WJul 27 · 18:45J. Sr—91111113V. Burylov—118881
WJul 19 · 10:00J. Sr—111112113V. Burylov—5131091
LJul 17 · 16:58J. Sr—14950V. Burylov—1611113
LJul 17 · 15:00J. Sr—11118552V. Burylov—591111113
WJul 15 · 19:45J. Sr—1111113V. Burylov—4680
LJul 11 · 19:45J. Sr—11116101V. Burylov—13511123
LJul 11 · 12:49J. Sr—11116892V. Burylov—671111113
LJul 11 · 09:15J. Sr—811111052V. Burylov—119312113
J. Sr10
WSep 6 · 12:54J. Sr1.611311113L. Adam2.2011760WSep 6 · 11:45J. Sr1.40111112113M. Kocvara2.75761481WSep 6 · 10:15O. Mezera2.751112461J. Sr1.4091411113WSep 6 · 09:45L. Adam2.104760J. Sr1.671111113WSep 5 · 20:44J. Sr1.331111113O. Mezera3.251440WSep 5 · 19:45J. Senk2.755820J. Sr1.401111113LSep 5 · 18:45O. Mezera3.00121476123J. Sr1.3610121111102WSep 5 · 17:15L. Veigl2.25911691J. Sr1.5711511113WSep 4 · 20:53J. Sr1.7311118113D. Gasparovic2.00761121WSep 4 · 18:15A. Snr1.8361151152J. Sr1.83117117113
V. Burylov10
WSep 6 · 17:00V. Burylov1.831111113D. Gasparovic1.838860WSep 6 · 15:45J. Chalupa1.80111011992V. Burylov1.91812911113WSep 6 · 14:45D. Gasparovic1.73136128112V. Burylov2.0011111011133LSep 6 · 13:15S. Rejent1.91691111153V. Burylov1.80111168132WSep 4 · 20:23V. Burylov1.7311911113A. Snr2.00611891LSep 4 · 18:45D. Gasparovic1.73111110143V. Burylov2.006912121LSep 4 · 12:29M. Makara2.101211113V. Burylov1.6710940LSep 4 · 11:30V. Burylov1.80991181M. Kocvara1.9111113113WSep 4 · 10:30V. Burylov1.611171114113M. Makara2.2061171692LSep 4 · 09:30V. Burylov1.801141151L. Adam1.9181113113
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