TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079231
Played Sep 5Finished
David Gasparovic
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911117511211––
Josef Chalupa
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:36 and never touched — 56.4% is still 56.4%
Graded at full timeDavid Gasparovic to win
56.4%
56.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDavid Gasparovic above · Josef Chalupa below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 2-11
Point 67 set 4, 2-11 — our read held David Gasparovic at 56.4%
67 points played in total.
H2H David Gasparovic 1–3 Josef Chalupa David Gasparovic has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:36What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Chalupa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Chalupa
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gasparovic 1679 vs Chalupa 1774
Chalupa
Correct
both rated, 95 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gasparovic 60% vs Chalupa 40%
Gasparovic
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gasparovic 60% vs Chalupa 30%
Gasparovic
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gasparovic +1 · Chalupa -3
Chalupa
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Chalupa) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chalupa form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGasparovic 2.20 / Chalupa 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Chalupa)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13079231
Gasparovic2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog61% won 11 of 18
Down 0–1, comes back38% 3 of 8
Down 0–2, comes back20% 1 of 5
Chalupa1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 55 of 96
Up 2–0, closes it96% 26 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it73% 33 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeGasparovic1wins
AwayChalupa3wins
1 of 4 to a deciderChalupa leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGasparovicn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayChalupa66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gasparovic1Chalupa3n = 4Chalupa took 3 of 4
S2Gasparovic2Chalupa2n = 4split evenly
S3Gasparovic3Chalupa1n = 4Gasparovic took 3 of 4
S4Gasparovic1Chalupa3n = 4Chalupa took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricGasparovicChalupaG − CBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match39.241.0−1.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGasparovicChalupaBasisWin rate · lifetime101 / 169 vs 204 / 36859.8%55.4%101 / 169 vs 204 / 368Avg sets wonper match2.32.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.040.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupaGasparovic 2.20/Chalupa 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Chalupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chalupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 6 · 13:45D. Gasparovic—81111113J. Chalupa—116791
LSep 5 · 08:29D. Gasparovic—101013111J. Chalupa—121211133
LSep 5 · 06:45D. Gasparovic—911521J. Chalupa—11711113
LMay 29 · 19:30D. Gasparovic—11911682J. Chalupa—511511113
D. Gasparovic10
LSep 6 · 17:00V. Burylov1.831111113D. Gasparovic1.838860WSep 6 · 15:15S. Rejent2.63511951D. Gasparovic1.4411611113LSep 6 · 14:45D. Gasparovic1.73136128112V. Burylov2.0011111011133WSep 6 · 13:45D. Gasparovic2.1081111113J. Chalupa1.67116791LSep 5 · 08:29J. Chalupa1.61121211133D. Gasparovic2.20101013111LSep 5 · 07:15M. Zelinka2.001171312123D. Gasparovic1.739111114102WSep 5 · 05:45D. Gasparovic1.361111113L. Veigl3.003930LSep 4 · 20:53J. Sr1.7311118113D. Gasparovic2.00761121WSep 4 · 19:15A. Snr2.50751191D. Gasparovic1.5011117113WSep 4 · 18:45D. Gasparovic1.73111110143V. Burylov2.006912121
J. Chalupa10
WSep 6 · 16:29J. Chalupa1.4411812113S. Rejent2.638111071LSep 6 · 15:45J. Chalupa1.80111011992V. Burylov1.91812911113WSep 6 · 14:15S. Rejent2.634130J. Chalupa1.441111113LSep 6 · 13:45D. Gasparovic2.1081111113J. Chalupa1.67116791WSep 5 · 08:29J. Chalupa1.61121211133D. Gasparovic2.20101013111LSep 5 · 07:45L. Veigl2.10311811113J. Chalupa1.6711911982LSep 5 · 05:15M. Zelinka1.83611911113J. Chalupa1.8311811992LAug 23 · 13:05J. Chalupa1.831271291L. Heinzl1.83101114113LAug 23 · 12:00L. Heinzl1.8311712133J. Chalupa1.8341110111WAug 23 · 11:00J. Sr1.8313121111102J. Chalupa1.831510136123
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