TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12477863
Played Aug 23Finished
Lukas Heinzl
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11471112101311––
Josef Chalupa
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:22 and never touched — 56.0% is still 56.0%
Graded at full timeJosef Chalupa to win
56.0%
56.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLukas Heinzl above · Josef Chalupa below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 79 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Josef Chalupa at 56.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Heinzl 19–21 Josef Chalupa Lukas Heinzl has won 19 of their 40 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:22What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Chalupa
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-21 in 40
Chalupa
Wrong
gap of 2 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Heinzl 1726 vs Chalupa 1816
Chalupa
Wrong
both rated, 90 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Heinzl 40% vs Chalupa 20%
Heinzl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Heinzl 50% vs Chalupa 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Heinzl +2 · Chalupa +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Chalupa)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chalupa form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHeinzl 1.83 / Chalupa 1.83
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Chalupa)+6.0pp
Setka Cup · #12477863
Heinzl1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Chalupa1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHeinzl5wins
AwayChalupa5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHeinzl80%4 of 5
AwayChalupa80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Heinzl5Chalupa5n = 10split evenly
S2Heinzl7Chalupa3n = 10Heinzl took 7 of 10
S3Heinzl3Chalupa7n = 10Chalupa took 7 of 10
S4Heinzl4Chalupa1n = 5Heinzl took 4 of 5
S5Heinzl1Chalupa2n = 3Chalupa took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHeinzlChalupaH − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.536.8−1.3per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHeinzlChalupaBasisWin rate · lifetime347 / 633 vs 205 / 36854.8%55.7%347 / 633 vs 205 / 368Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.940.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupaHeinzl 1.83/Chalupa 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56%
Chalupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Heinzl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 16 · 08:48L. Heinzl—11116113J. Chalupa—691161
LAug 16 · 06:45L. Heinzl—97100J. Chalupa—1111123
WMay 29 · 21:18L. Heinzl—1111113J. Chalupa—9990
LMay 29 · 18:30L. Heinzl—147713102J. Chalupa—12111111123
LMay 13 · 20:23L. Heinzl—7133101J. Chalupa—111111123
WMay 13 · 19:15L. Heinzl—1111113J. Chalupa—8980
LApr 4 · 08:43L. Heinzl—7950J. Chalupa—1111113
WApr 4 · 07:45L. Heinzl—1111113J. Chalupa—7850
LMar 9 · 06:45L. Heinzl—51241172J. Chalupa—1110117113
WJan 26 · 06:45L. Heinzl—811611113J. Chalupa—11911862
L. Heinzl10
LSep 7 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.83551691M. Zelinka1.83111114113WSep 7 · 06:15P. Wasik1.531410981L. Heinzl2.38121211113LSep 7 · 05:45L. Veigl2.50111111113L. Heinzl1.50781361LSep 3 · 08:14L. Heinzl1.6781181182M. Makara2.10116113113LSep 3 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.7381380M. Stibor2.001115113LSep 3 · 06:15L. Adam2.0091111113L. Heinzl1.73113791WSep 3 · 05:45M. Makara2.201131191L. Heinzl1.6113119113WSep 2 · 08:48O. Mezera3.40111140L. Heinzl1.301313113LSep 2 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.5011911143L. Heinzl1.508119121WSep 2 · 06:45L. Heinzl1.731111113L. Adam2.008960
J. Chalupa10
WSep 6 · 16:29J. Chalupa1.4411812113S. Rejent2.638111071LSep 6 · 15:45J. Chalupa1.80111011992V. Burylov1.91812911113WSep 6 · 14:15S. Rejent2.634130J. Chalupa1.441111113LSep 6 · 13:45D. Gasparovic2.1081111113J. Chalupa1.67116791WSep 5 · 08:29J. Chalupa1.61121211133D. Gasparovic2.20101013111LSep 5 · 07:45L. Veigl2.10311811113J. Chalupa1.6711911982WSep 5 · 06:45D. Gasparovic2.20911521J. Chalupa1.6111711113LSep 5 · 05:15M. Zelinka1.83611911113J. Chalupa1.8311811992LAug 23 · 13:05J. Chalupa1.831271291L. Heinzl1.83101114113WAug 23 · 11:00J. Sr1.8313121111102J. Chalupa1.831510136123
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