TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13088631
Played Sep 7Finished
Lukas Heinzl
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
5115111614911––
Matus Zelinka
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:55 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMatus Zelinka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Heinzl above · Matus Zelinka below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 16-14
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 82 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Matus Zelinka at 54.0%
82 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Heinzl 24–27 Matus Zelinka Lukas Heinzl has won 24 of their 51 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:55What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Zelinka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-27 in 51
Zelinka
Correct
gap of 3 in 51, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Heinzl 1715 vs Zelinka 1700
Heinzl
Wrong
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Heinzl 20% vs Zelinka 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Heinzl 50% vs Zelinka 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Heinzl +1 · Zelinka -3
Zelinka
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Heinzl) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zelinka form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHeinzl 1.83 / Zelinka 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Heinzl)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13088631
Heinzl1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Zelinka1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHeinzl5wins
AwayZelinka5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHeinzl80%4 of 5
AwayZelinka80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Heinzl5Zelinka5n = 10split evenly
S2Heinzl4Zelinka6n = 10Zelinka took 6 of 10
S3Heinzl5Zelinka5n = 10split evenly
S4Heinzl3Zelinka6n = 9Zelinka took 6 of 9
S5Heinzl3Zelinka0n = 3Heinzl took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHeinzlZelinkaH − ZBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.739.1+0.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHeinzlZelinkaBasisWin rate · lifetime355 / 648 vs 198 / 37954.8%52.2%355 / 648 vs 198 / 379Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.939.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HeinzlHeinzl 1.83/Zelinka 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Heinzl · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zelinka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 07:45L. Heinzl—551691M. Zelinka—111114113
WAug 28 · 15:15L. Heinzl—1111113M. Zelinka—2660
LAug 24 · 08:18L. Heinzl—1111851M. Zelinka—41311113
WAug 24 · 07:15L. Heinzl—11114133M. Zelinka—6711111
LAug 8 · 09:45L. Heinzl—5101181M. Zelinka—11128113
WAug 7 · 14:45L. Heinzl—119911113M. Zelinka—61111652
WJul 29 · 06:15L. Heinzl—1110124113M. Zelinka—912101162
WMay 3 · 20:14L. Heinzl—9111011113M. Zelinka—11812682
LMay 3 · 19:15L. Heinzl—891171M. Zelinka—11117113
LApr 19 · 08:44L. Heinzl—811971M. Zelinka—11911113
L. Heinzl10
WSep 7 · 06:15P. Wasik1.531410981L. Heinzl2.38121211113LSep 7 · 05:45L. Veigl2.50111111113L. Heinzl1.50781361LSep 3 · 08:14L. Heinzl1.6781181182M. Makara2.10116113113LSep 3 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.7381380M. Stibor2.001115113LSep 3 · 06:15L. Adam2.0091111113L. Heinzl1.73113791WSep 3 · 05:45M. Makara2.201131191L. Heinzl1.6113119113WSep 2 · 08:48O. Mezera3.40111140L. Heinzl1.301313113LSep 2 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.5011911143L. Heinzl1.508119121WSep 2 · 06:45L. Heinzl1.731111113L. Adam2.008960WSep 2 · 05:45L. Heinzl1.30111179113O. Mezera3.4069111162
M. Zelinka10
LSep 7 · 06:45L. Veigl2.3811611113M. Zelinka1.53911951LSep 7 · 05:15P. Wasik1.531110117113M. Zelinka2.3831281182LSep 5 · 09:00L. Veigl2.2012611113M. Zelinka1.611011971WSep 5 · 07:15M. Zelinka2.001171312123D. Gasparovic1.739111114102LSep 5 · 06:15M. Zelinka1.50811881L. Veigl2.5011911113WSep 5 · 05:15M. Zelinka1.83611911113J. Chalupa1.8311811992LAug 30 · 08:28M. Zelinka1.73761181R. Pisa2.0011115113WAug 30 · 07:45V. Burylov1.801314111082M. Zelinka1.911512912113WAug 30 · 06:45R. Pisa2.00111011992M. Zelinka1.73612411113LAug 30 · 05:15T. Liska2.1011119113M. Zelinka1.67891181
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