TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13006882
Played Aug 25Finished
Michal Stibor
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511611811––––
Ladislav Dobias
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:16 and never touched — 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeLadislav Dobias to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Stibor above · Ladislav Dobias below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 52 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Ladislav Dobias at 56.8%
52 points played in total.
H2H Michal Stibor 9–16 Ladislav Dobias Michal Stibor has won 9 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:16What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Dobias
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-16 in 25
Dobias
Correct
gap of 7 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stibor 1720 vs Dobias 1804
Dobias
Correct
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stibor 60% vs Dobias 80%
Dobias
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stibor 50% vs Dobias 80%
Dobias
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stibor -1 · Dobias +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Dobias)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dobias form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStibor 2.10 / Dobias 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Dobias)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13006882
Stibor2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 23 of 58
Down 0–1, comes back26% 10 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Dobias1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite59% won 220 of 372
Up 2–0, closes it93% 69 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it80% 155 of 193
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStibor4wins
AwayDobias6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDobias leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStibor75%3 of 4
AwayDobias83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stibor4Dobias6n = 10Dobias took 6 of 10
S2Stibor4Dobias6n = 10Dobias took 6 of 10
S3Stibor7Dobias3n = 10Stibor took 7 of 10
S4Stibor3Dobias4n = 7Dobias took 4 of 7
S5Stibor1Dobias3n = 4Dobias took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricStiborDobiasS − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.439.3−2.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStiborDobiasBasisWin rate · lifetime169 / 324 vs 406 / 72752.2%55.9%169 / 324 vs 406 / 727Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.441.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DobiasStibor 2.10/Dobias 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Dobias · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Dobias won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 25 · 06:15M. Stibor—5680L. Dobias—1111113
WAug 20 · 06:45M. Stibor—111111113L. Dobias—913791
LJul 21 · 05:15M. Stibor—411101162L. Dobias—116129113
LJul 20 · 06:15M. Stibor—11611242L. Dobias—711811113
WJun 11 · 06:45M. Stibor—91111113L. Dobias—117881
WJun 9 · 06:15M. Stibor—1111113L. Dobias—9750
LJun 8 · 09:15M. Stibor—691161L. Dobias—11117113
LJun 5 · 08:34M. Stibor—91190L. Dobias—1113113
WJun 5 · 07:30M. Stibor—126117113L. Dobias—101141172
LMay 20 · 12:23M. Stibor—101112362L. Dobias—1281011113
M. Stibor10
LSep 3 · 08:44M. Stibor1.67681491L. Adam2.10111112113WSep 3 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.7381380M. Stibor2.001115113WSep 3 · 06:45M. Makara2.6311970M. Stibor1.441311113WSep 3 · 05:15L. Adam2.1021111562M. Stibor1.67117511113LAug 31 · 12:18M. Vyskocil1.67441111133M. Stibor2.10111199112LAug 31 · 11:15M. Stibor1.738770M. Vyskocil2.001111113WAug 31 · 10:15M. Stibor1.501161111123L. Rulc2.50131197102WAug 31 · 09:15M. Stibor1.501181411113M. Kocvara2.50131112762WAug 26 · 08:23M. Stibor1.4011164113M. Kovarik2.757141191WAug 26 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.5091350M. Stibor1.501115113
L. Dobias10
LAug 28 · 08:23L. Dobias1.57117681M. Zelinka2.2591111113WAug 28 · 07:45L. Dobias1.73911913113V. Burylov2.00115111192LAug 28 · 06:15P. Wasik1.8311711113L. Dobias1.83711681LAug 28 · 05:45M. Zelinka2.1081111123L. Dobias1.671194101WAug 26 · 12:13L. Dobias1.91911712113P. Wasik1.80115111062LAug 26 · 11:45L. Heinzl2.251213113L. Dobias1.57101190WAug 26 · 10:45M. Kocvara2.5031111982L. Dobias1.50119611113WAug 26 · 09:15P. Wasik1.808880L. Dobias1.911111113WAug 25 · 08:53M. Zelinka2.1061111532L. Dobias1.67113811113LAug 25 · 07:45L. Dobias1.61111091152M. Zelinka2.20912113113
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