TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073157
Played Sep 4Finished
Pavel Fencl
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11611131195111012
Marek Vyskocil
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:20 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeMarek Vyskocil to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingPavel Fencl above · Marek Vyskocil below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 99 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Marek Vyskocil at 54.1%
99 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Fencl 2–3 Marek Vyskocil Pavel Fencl has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:20What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Vyskocil
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fencl 1553 vs Vyskocil 1722
Vyskocil
Correct
both rated, 169 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fencl 20% vs Vyskocil 60%
Vyskocil
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fencl 30% vs Vyskocil 70%
Vyskocil
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fencl -4 · Vyskocil +2
Fencl
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Vyskocil) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fencl form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFencl 2.20 / Vyskocil 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Vyskocil)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13073157
Fencl2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 8 of 19
Down 0–1, comes back17% 2 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Vyskocil1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 72 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it90% 37 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it75% 54 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeFencl2wins
AwayVyskocil3wins
1 of 5 to a deciderVyskocil leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFencl50%2 of 4
AwayVyskociln = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fencl4Vyskocil1n = 5Fencl took 4 of 5
S2Fencl3Vyskocil2n = 5Fencl took 3 of 5
S3Fencl1Vyskocil4n = 5Vyskocil took 4 of 5
S4Fencl1Vyskocil2n = 3Vyskocil took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricFenclVyskocilF − VBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match33.838.6−4.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFenclVyskocilBasisWin rate · lifetime38 / 80 vs 224 / 41047.5%54.6%38 / 80 vs 224 / 410Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.340.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VyskocilFencl 2.20/Vyskocil 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Vyskocil · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vyskocil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 27 · 06:45P. Fencl—118331M. Vyskocil—81111113
LJan 12 · 13:57P. Fencl—11116582M. Vyskocil—651111113
LJan 12 · 10:15P. Fencl—11530M. Vyskocil—1311113
WDec 31 · 09:56P. Fencl—12168113M. Vyskocil—10141181
WDec 31 · 08:00P. Fencl—1115113M. Vyskocil—91380
P. Fencl10
WSep 4 · 08:19J. Senk2.107960P. Fencl1.671111113WSep 4 · 07:15P. Fencl1.7311811113J. Senk2.00911781LSep 4 · 05:15P. Fencl1.8011111010102T. Liska1.91761212123LAug 27 · 08:18P. Fencl1.73917781M. Ullman2.00111511113LAug 27 · 07:45V. Grubr2.1041115113P. Fencl1.671171341LAug 27 · 06:45M. Vyskocil1.9181111113P. Fencl1.80118331WAug 27 · 05:15M. Ullman1.738480P. Fencl2.001111113WAug 17 · 08:13P. Fencl2.101111113J. Rochowanski1.676920LAug 17 · 07:15J. Rochowanski1.73591211113P. Fencl2.00111110392LAug 17 · 06:45P. Fencl2.50761181L. Rulc1.5011116113
M. Vyskocil10
WSep 4 · 08:48T. Liska1.91911981M. Vyskocil1.8011811113LSep 4 · 07:45M. Vyskocil1.73101090T. Liska2.001212113WSep 4 · 05:45J. Senk1.7311860M. Vyskocil2.001311113WSep 3 · 20:43T. Liska1.919101161M. Vyskocil1.8011126113LSep 3 · 19:15M. Vyskocil1.83691111102A. Snr1.83111188123LSep 3 · 18:15M. Vyskocil1.67117117112T. Liska2.10711811133WSep 3 · 17:15M. Vyskocil1.8091112113R. Pisa1.911131011LSep 2 · 12:44J. Dolezal1.831111910113M. Vyskocil1.8384111282WSep 2 · 11:15V. Grubr1.53118281M. Vyskocil2.3891111113WAug 27 · 06:45M. Vyskocil1.9181111113P. Fencl1.80118331
Upcoming Matches
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