TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12456526
Played Aug 19Finished
Lukas Rulc
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8118111181012––
Matej Kovarik
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:11 and never touched — 61.9% is still 61.9%
Graded at full timeLukas Rulc to win
61.9%
61.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLukas Rulc above · Matej Kovarik below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 79 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Lukas Rulc at 61.9%
79 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Rulc 6–5 Matej Kovarik Matej Kovarik has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:11What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Rulc
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-5 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rulc 1613 vs Kovarik 1652
Kovarik
Correct
both rated, 38 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rulc 20% vs Kovarik 40%
Kovarik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rulc 30% vs Kovarik 50%
Kovarik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rulc -3 · Kovarik -1
Rulc
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Rulc) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rulc form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRulc 1.57 / Kovarik 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Rulc)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #12456526
Rulc1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 107 of 190
Up 2–0, closes it84% 47 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it68% 77 of 113
Kovarik2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 13 of 33
Down 0–1, comes back20% 4 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back15% 2 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRulc5wins
AwayKovarik5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRulc80%4 of 5
AwayKovarik80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rulc5Kovarik5n = 10split evenly
S2Rulc4Kovarik6n = 10Kovarik took 6 of 10
S3Rulc8Kovarik2n = 10Rulc took 8 of 10
S4Rulc3Kovarik3n = 6split evenly
S5Rulc1Kovarik2n = 3Kovarik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRulcKovarikR − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.634.6+3.0per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRulcKovarikBasisWin rate · lifetime350 / 705 vs 50 / 9649.7%52.1%350 / 705 vs 50 / 96Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.838.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RulcRulc 1.57/Kovarik 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Rulc · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kovarik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 19 · 08:18L. Rulc—97121172M. Kovarik—1111105113
LAug 19 · 06:15L. Rulc—8811101M. Kovarik—11118123
WJun 17 · 08:13L. Rulc—1111123M. Kovarik—52100
WJun 17 · 07:15L. Rulc—1111113M. Kovarik—6680
WJun 3 · 08:19L. Rulc—139711113M. Kovarik—111111352
LJun 3 · 06:45L. Rulc—11311492M. Kovarik—911411113
WMay 1 · 06:45L. Rulc—101111113M. Kovarik—127951
LFeb 18 · 13:00L. Rulc—8570M. Kovarik—1111103
WSep 4 · 08:45L. Rulc—1112113M. Kovarik—41080
LSep 4 · 06:45L. Rulc—11111171M. Kovarik—13138113
L. Rulc10
LSep 1 · 12:54L. Rulc1.831111810102V. Grubr1.83881112123WSep 1 · 11:45L. Rulc1.67121189123T. Liska2.101041111102WSep 1 · 10:15V. Grubr1.834116101L. Rulc1.8311511123LSep 1 · 09:45A. Radkovsky2.101111113L. Rulc1.677660LAug 31 · 12:48M. Kocvara2.631111113L. Rulc1.447870WAug 31 · 11:45L. Rulc1.6711711113M. Kocvara2.10811671LAug 31 · 10:15M. Stibor1.501161111123L. Rulc2.50131197102LAug 31 · 09:45M. Vyskocil2.75139114113L. Rulc1.40111181132LAug 29 · 13:05M. Makara1.801512113L. Rulc1.91131090WAug 29 · 12:00L. Rulc1.91118911113M. Makara1.8091111662
M. Kovarik10
WSep 2 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.5011911143L. Heinzl1.508119121LSep 2 · 06:15M. Kovarik1.5311117772O. Mezera2.38831111113LSep 2 · 05:15M. Kovarik2.2576100L. Adam1.571111123LAug 26 · 08:23M. Stibor1.4011164113M. Kovarik2.757141191LAug 26 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.5091350M. Stibor1.501115113LAug 26 · 06:15M. Kovarik2.20711101172L. Adam1.61119127113LAug 26 · 05:15M. Kovarik1.80101111992V. Grubr1.91129811113WAug 19 · 08:18M. Kovarik2.101111105113L. Rulc1.6797121172WAug 19 · 07:45M. Kovarik2.1011117113V. Burylov1.67791141LAug 19 · 05:45V. Grubr1.831111113M. Kovarik1.837990
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