TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13015082
Played Aug 26Finished
Matej Kovarik
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1012119118911911
Vojtech Grubr
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 8Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:48 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMatej Kovarik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMatej Kovarik above · Vojtech Grubr below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 101 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Matej Kovarik at 54.0%
101 points played in total.
H2H Matej Kovarik 9–10 Vojtech Grubr Matej Kovarik has won 9 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:48What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kovarik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-10 in 19
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovarik 1652 vs Grubr 1560
Kovarik
Wrong
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovarik 80% vs Grubr 0%
Kovarik
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovarik 60% vs Grubr 20%
Kovarik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovarik +3 · Grubr -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kovarik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Grubr form (0%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovarik 1.80 / Grubr 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kovarik)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13015082
Kovarik1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite71% won 12 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it67% 6 of 9
Grubr1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 8
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 65 of 153
Down 0–1, comes back29% 25 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovarik6wins
AwayGrubr4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKovarik leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovarik75%3 of 4
AwayGrubr50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovarik4Grubr6n = 10Grubr took 6 of 10
S2Kovarik5Grubr5n = 10split evenly
S3Kovarik5Grubr5n = 10split evenly
S4Kovarik4Grubr4n = 8split evenly
S5Kovarik4Grubr1n = 5Kovarik took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovarikGrubrK − GBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.940.5+2.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovarikGrubrBasisWin rate · lifetime50 / 96 vs 223 / 45052.1%49.6%50 / 96 vs 223 / 450Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.640.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovarikKovarik 1.80/Grubr 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kovarik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Grubr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 19 · 05:45M. Kovarik—7990V. Grubr—1111113
LApr 10 · 08:19M. Kovarik—1012101182V. Grubr—1210129113
WApr 10 · 06:45M. Kovarik—10111111113V. Grubr—12139562
WFeb 4 · 07:15M. Kovarik—11911113V. Grubr—511741
LAug 13 · 06:15M. Kovarik—1141071V. Grubr—41112113
WAug 6 · 08:11M. Kovarik—8111112113V. Grubr—11861462
WAug 6 · 05:45M. Kovarik—111186113V. Grubr—78111172
LMay 6 · 06:45M. Kovarik—81411111V. Grubr—11166133
WMay 1 · 06:45M. Kovarik—1111113V. Grubr—8890
WApr 23 · 08:45M. Kovarik—711811113V. Grubr—11911892
M. Kovarik10
WSep 2 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.5011911143L. Heinzl1.508119121LSep 2 · 06:15M. Kovarik1.5311117772O. Mezera2.38831111113LSep 2 · 05:15M. Kovarik2.2576100L. Adam1.571111123LAug 26 · 08:23M. Stibor1.4011164113M. Kovarik2.757141191LAug 26 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.5091350M. Stibor1.501115113LAug 26 · 06:15M. Kovarik2.20711101172L. Adam1.61119127113WAug 19 · 08:18M. Kovarik2.101111105113L. Rulc1.6797121172WAug 19 · 07:45M. Kovarik2.1011117113V. Burylov1.67791141WAug 19 · 06:15L. Rulc1.578811101M. Kovarik2.2511118123LAug 19 · 05:45V. Grubr1.831111113M. Kovarik1.837990
V. Grubr10
LSep 2 · 12:13A. Radkovsky2.1011191217113V. Grubr1.67817141992LSep 2 · 11:15V. Grubr1.53118281M. Vyskocil2.3891111113WSep 2 · 10:15V. Grubr1.67117511113J. Dolezal2.1061111972LSep 2 · 09:15V. Grubr1.61691181A. Radkovsky2.2011117113WSep 1 · 12:54L. Rulc1.831111810102V. Grubr1.83881112123WSep 1 · 11:15V. Grubr1.67611511113A. Radkovsky2.1011611792LSep 1 · 10:15V. Grubr1.834116101L. Rulc1.8311511123WSep 1 · 09:15V. Grubr1.911111113T. Liska1.809990LAug 31 · 16:49V. Grubr2.388880L. Svoboda1.531111113WAug 19 · 05:45V. Grubr1.831111113M. Kovarik1.837990
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