TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12392334
Played Aug 10Finished
Lukas Rulc
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111157111210116
Miloslav Ullman
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:05 and never touched — 56.7% is still 56.7%
Graded at full timeLukas Rulc to win
56.7%
56.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Rulc above · Miloslav Ullman below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 92 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Lukas Rulc at 56.7%
92 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Rulc 35–23 Miloslav Ullman Miloslav Ullman has won 23 of their 58 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:05What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Rulc
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
35-23 in 58
Rulc
Correct
gap of 12 in 58, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rulc 1630 vs Ullman 1613
Rulc
Correct
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rulc 40% vs Ullman 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rulc 30% vs Ullman 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rulc +1 · Ullman +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Rulc) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rulc form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRulc 1.73 / Ullman 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Rulc)+1.0pp
Setka Cup · #12392334
Rulc1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite56% won 107 of 192
Up 2–0, closes it84% 46 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it65% 76 of 117
Ullman2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 43 of 117
Down 0–1, comes back23% 13 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRulc7wins
AwayUllman3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderRulc leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRulc66.7%4 of 6
AwayUllman25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rulc6Ullman4n = 10Rulc took 6 of 10
S2Rulc7Ullman3n = 10Rulc took 7 of 10
S3Rulc5Ullman5n = 10split evenly
S4Rulc4Ullman3n = 7Rulc took 4 of 7
S5Rulc3Ullman1n = 4Rulc took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricRulcUllmanR − UBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.636.0+4.6per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRulcUllmanBasisWin rate · lifetime352 / 698 vs 197 / 41750.4%47.2%352 / 698 vs 197 / 417Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.939.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RulcRulc 1.73/Ullman 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.7%
Rulc · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Rulc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 10 · 06:15L. Rulc—811712113M. Ullman—115111062
WAug 9 · 08:18L. Rulc—121111113M. Ullman—146591
LAug 9 · 06:15L. Rulc—61111662M. Ullman—119811113
WAug 1 · 06:30L. Rulc—128511113M. Ullman—101111772
WJun 30 · 06:15L. Rulc—1111113M. Ullman—8760
LJun 16 · 08:45L. Rulc—1161191M. Ullman—81113113
WJun 16 · 05:45L. Rulc—1111113M. Ullman—7550
WJun 13 · 18:45L. Rulc—1111411113M. Ullman—13511182
LJun 12 · 19:30L. Rulc—1198131M. Ullman—61111153
WMay 12 · 18:30L. Rulc—1111113M. Ullman—9790
L. Rulc10
LSep 1 · 12:54L. Rulc1.831111810102V. Grubr1.83881112123WSep 1 · 11:45L. Rulc1.67121189123T. Liska2.101041111102WSep 1 · 10:15V. Grubr1.834116101L. Rulc1.8311511123LSep 1 · 09:45A. Radkovsky2.101111113L. Rulc1.677660LAug 31 · 12:48M. Kocvara2.631111113L. Rulc1.447870WAug 31 · 11:45L. Rulc1.6711711113M. Kocvara2.10811671LAug 31 · 10:15M. Stibor1.501161111123L. Rulc2.50131197102LAug 31 · 09:45M. Vyskocil2.75139114113L. Rulc1.40111181132LAug 29 · 13:05M. Makara1.801512113L. Rulc1.91131090WAug 29 · 12:00L. Rulc1.91118911113M. Makara1.8091111662
M. Ullman10
LSep 2 · 20:48R. Pisa1.8311129113M. Ullman1.833101191LSep 2 · 19:15M. Ullman2.10911101172S. Rejent1.67116124113WSep 2 · 18:15M. Ullman1.831191112113R. Pisa1.8391161462WSep 2 · 17:15M. Ullman1.73711511113J. Dolezal2.0011611682WAug 27 · 08:18P. Fencl1.73917781M. Ullman2.00111511113LAug 27 · 07:15M. Ullman1.7311148392M. Vyskocil2.009121111113LAug 27 · 06:15M. Ullman1.83713118112V. Grubr1.831111411133LAug 27 · 05:15M. Ullman1.738480P. Fencl2.001111113WAug 10 · 08:43M. Makara1.7311711422M. Ullman2.00811611113LAug 10 · 07:45M. Ullman2.00113791M. Makara1.7361111113
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