Matus Zelinka vs Lukas Heinzl 3-1

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka CupMatch #13091405

Played Sep 7Finished

Matus Zelinka

Home

1.83

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

1198111210119––

Lukas Heinzl

Away

1.83

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Lost last 1

How it is goingMatus Zelinka above · Lukas Heinzl below

Set 1 · 11-9

Set 2 · 8-11

Set 3 · 12-10

Set 4 · 11-9

Point 81 set 4, 11-9

81 points played in total.

H2H Matus Zelinka 27–24 Lukas Heinzl Lukas Heinzl has won 24 of their 51 meetings.

Last 10 · 5–5Head to head

Same-day rematch · 1h before this match

Zelinka beat Heinzl 3-1.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Zelinka)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Heinzl form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsZelinka 1.83 / Heinzl 1.83

Signal prob.54% / 46%

Edge (Zelinka)+4.0pp

Setka Cup · #13091405

Zelinka1.83

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

Heinzl1.83

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeZelinka5wins

AwayHeinzl5wins

3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeZelinka80%4 of 5

AwayHeinzl80%4 of 5

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Zelinka5Heinzl5n = 10split evenly

S2Zelinka6Heinzl4n = 10Zelinka took 6 of 10

S3Zelinka5Heinzl5n = 10split evenly

S4Zelinka6Heinzl3n = 9Zelinka took 6 of 9

S5Zelinka0Heinzl3n = 3Heinzl took 3 of 3

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home550%

3–2Decider, home00%

2–3Decider, away330%

1–3Four sets, away110%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricZelinkaHeinzlZ − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.139.7−0.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricZelinkaHeinzlBasisWin rate · lifetime198 / 379 vs 355 / 64852.2%54.8%198 / 379 vs 355 / 648Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.939.9per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Zelinka

Zelinka 1.83/Heinzl 1.83

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

54%

Zelinka · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Zelinka won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

WSep 7 · 07:45M. Zelinka—111114113L. Heinzl—551691

LAug 28 · 15:15M. Zelinka—2660L. Heinzl—1111113

WAug 24 · 08:18M. Zelinka—41311113L. Heinzl—1111851

LAug 24 · 07:15M. Zelinka—6711111L. Heinzl—11114133

WAug 8 · 09:45M. Zelinka—11128113L. Heinzl—5101181

LAug 7 · 14:45M. Zelinka—61111652L. Heinzl—119911113

LJul 29 · 06:15M. Zelinka—912101162L. Heinzl—1110124113

LMay 3 · 20:14M. Zelinka—11812682L. Heinzl—9111011113

WMay 3 · 19:15M. Zelinka—11117113L. Heinzl—891171

WApr 19 · 08:44M. Zelinka—11911113L. Heinzl—811971

M. Zelinka10

WSep 7 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.83551691M. Zelinka1.83111114113 LSep 7 · 06:45L. Veigl2.3811611113M. Zelinka1.53911951 LSep 7 · 05:15P. Wasik1.531110117113M. Zelinka2.3831281182 LSep 5 · 09:00L. Veigl2.2012611113M. Zelinka1.611011971 WSep 5 · 07:15M. Zelinka2.001171312123D. Gasparovic1.739111114102 LSep 5 · 06:15M. Zelinka1.50811881L. Veigl2.5011911113 WSep 5 · 05:15M. Zelinka1.83611911113J. Chalupa1.8311811992 LAug 30 · 08:28M. Zelinka1.73761181R. Pisa2.0011115113 WAug 30 · 07:45V. Burylov1.801314111082M. Zelinka1.911512912113 WAug 30 · 06:45R. Pisa2.00111011992M. Zelinka1.73612411113

L. Heinzl10

LSep 7 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.83551691M. Zelinka1.83111114113 WSep 7 · 06:15P. Wasik1.531410981L. Heinzl2.38121211113 LSep 7 · 05:45L. Veigl2.50111111113L. Heinzl1.50781361 LSep 3 · 08:14L. Heinzl1.6781181182M. Makara2.10116113113 LSep 3 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.7381380M. Stibor2.001115113 LSep 3 · 06:15L. Adam2.0091111113L. Heinzl1.73113791 WSep 3 · 05:45M. Makara2.201131191L. Heinzl1.6113119113 WSep 2 · 08:48O. Mezera3.40111140L. Heinzl1.301313113 LSep 2 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.5011911143L. Heinzl1.508119121 WSep 2 · 06:45L. Heinzl1.731111113L. Adam2.008960

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