TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13054708
Played Sep 1Finished
Martin Kocvara
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119511511611––
Lukas Heinzl
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:25 and never touched — 67.5% is still 67.5%
Graded at full timeLukas Heinzl to win
67.5%
67.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Kocvara above · Lukas Heinzl below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 69 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Lukas Heinzl at 67.5%
69 points played in total.
H2H Martin Kocvara 3–7 Lukas Heinzl Martin Kocvara has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:25What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Heinzl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-7 in 10
Heinzl
Correct
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kocvara 1724 vs Heinzl 1769
Heinzl
Correct
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kocvara 40% vs Heinzl 60%
Heinzl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kocvara 50% vs Heinzl 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kocvara -1 · Heinzl +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Heinzl) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Heinzl form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKocvara 2.75 / Heinzl 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Heinzl)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13054708
Kocvara2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog57% won 48 of 85
Down 0–1, comes back49% 21 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back28% 5 of 18
Heinzl1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 158 of 266
Up 2–0, closes it95% 74 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it77% 115 of 150
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKocvara3wins
AwayHeinzl7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHeinzl leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKocvara40%2 of 5
AwayHeinzl80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kocvara5Heinzl5n = 10split evenly
S2Kocvara2Heinzl8n = 10Heinzl took 8 of 10
S3Kocvara4Heinzl6n = 10Heinzl took 6 of 10
S4Kocvara3Heinzl4n = 7Heinzl took 4 of 7
S5Kocvara1Heinzl2n = 3Heinzl took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKocvaraHeinzlK − HBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.238.3−4.1per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKocvaraHeinzlBasisWin rate · lifetime73 / 128 vs 355 / 64657%55%73 / 128 vs 355 / 646Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.939.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HeinzlKocvara 2.75/Heinzl 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.7%
Heinzl · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Heinzl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 06:15M. Kocvara—115561L. Heinzl—91111113
LAug 26 · 12:43M. Kocvara—11611962L. Heinzl—611711113
WAug 26 · 09:45M. Kocvara—71111113L. Heinzl—116891
LAug 9 · 18:45M. Kocvara—1194101L. Heinzl—91111123
WJul 28 · 06:45M. Kocvara—119114113L. Heinzl—61171192
LJul 20 · 06:45M. Kocvara—9770L. Heinzl—1111113
LJun 30 · 09:08M. Kocvara—6980L. Heinzl—1111113
WJun 30 · 07:00M. Kocvara—11118113L. Heinzl—851171
LJun 9 · 19:00M. Kocvara—69111172L. Heinzl—111138113
LJun 7 · 09:45M. Kocvara—8760L. Heinzl—1111113
M. Kocvara10
WSep 6 · 12:24M. Kocvara1.53119113113O. Mezera2.3871191172LSep 6 · 11:45J. Sr1.40111112113M. Kocvara2.75761481LSep 6 · 10:45L. Adam1.801111113M. Kocvara1.919480WSep 6 · 09:15O. Mezera2.208990M. Kocvara1.611111113LSep 4 · 12:59L. Adam2.201111113M. Kocvara1.617480WSep 4 · 11:30V. Burylov1.80991181M. Kocvara1.9111113113WSep 4 · 11:00M. Kocvara1.67115211113L. Adam2.1031111742WSep 4 · 10:00M. Kocvara1.731113123M. Makara2.00611100WSep 1 · 08:21M. Makara2.7551211472M. Kocvara1.401110911113LSep 1 · 07:15M. Kocvara1.6711891172M. Makara2.10911118113
L. Heinzl10
LSep 7 · 08:49M. Zelinka1.8311812113L. Heinzl1.839111091LSep 7 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.83551691M. Zelinka1.83111114113WSep 7 · 06:15P. Wasik1.531410981L. Heinzl2.38121211113LSep 7 · 05:45L. Veigl2.50111111113L. Heinzl1.50781361LSep 3 · 08:14L. Heinzl1.6781181182M. Makara2.10116113113LSep 3 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.7381380M. Stibor2.001115113LSep 3 · 06:15L. Adam2.0091111113L. Heinzl1.73113791WSep 3 · 05:45M. Makara2.201131191L. Heinzl1.6113119113WSep 2 · 08:48O. Mezera3.40111140L. Heinzl1.301313113LSep 2 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.5011911143L. Heinzl1.508119121
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