TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049621
Played Aug 31Finished
Lukas Svoboda
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911119115116––
Ondrej Mezera
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:56 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeLukas Svoboda to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Svoboda above · Ondrej Mezera below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 73 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Lukas Svoboda at 60.1%
73 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Svoboda 4–2 Ondrej Mezera Ondrej Mezera has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:56What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Svoboda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Svoboda
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svoboda 1647 vs Mezera 1641
Svoboda
Correct
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svoboda 80% vs Mezera 60%
Svoboda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svoboda 50% vs Mezera 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Svoboda +2 · Mezera -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Svoboda)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mezera form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvoboda 1.57 / Mezera 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Svoboda)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13049621
Svoboda1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 19 of 32
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it77% 13 of 17
Mezera2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 111 of 241
Down 0–1, comes back33% 45 of 138
Down 0–2, comes back16% 12 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeSvoboda4wins
AwayMezera2wins
2 of 6 to a deciderSvoboda leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvoboda75%3 of 4
AwayMezeran = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svoboda4Mezera2n = 6Svoboda took 4 of 6
S2Svoboda1Mezera5n = 6Mezera took 5 of 6
S3Svoboda2Mezera4n = 6Mezera took 4 of 6
S4Svoboda4Mezera1n = 5Svoboda took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricSvobodaMezeraS − MBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match40.538.0+2.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvobodaMezeraBasisWin rate · lifetime67 / 149 vs 413 / 81345%50.8%67 / 149 vs 413 / 813Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.140.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvobodaSvoboda 1.57/Mezera 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Svoboda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Svoboda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 15 · 07:45L. Svoboda—11117113O. Mezera—581191
LAug 14 · 20:18L. Svoboda—1151091O. Mezera—41112113
WAug 14 · 18:15L. Svoboda—147711113O. Mezera—121111392
LJul 7 · 15:15L. Svoboda—6960O. Mezera—1111113
WJul 6 · 16:18L. Svoboda—1091111153O. Mezera—121169132
WJul 6 · 15:15L. Svoboda—11811113O. Mezera—311761
L. Svoboda10
WAug 31 · 16:49V. Grubr2.388880L. Svoboda1.531111113WAug 31 · 14:15L. Svoboda1.8312116123A. Radkovsky1.8310511101WAug 31 · 13:15L. Svoboda1.611111113V. Grubr2.207780LAug 15 · 08:50L. Svoboda2.38129771J. Chalupa1.53101111113WAug 15 · 07:45O. Mezera2.00581191L. Svoboda1.7311117113WAug 15 · 06:45M. Kocvara1.6712714642L. Svoboda2.1010111211113LAug 15 · 05:15J. Chalupa1.5311711123L. Svoboda2.386117101LAug 14 · 20:18L. Svoboda1.611151091O. Mezera2.2041112113LAug 14 · 19:45L. Svoboda1.738116101M. Vyskocil2.0011711123WAug 14 · 18:15O. Mezera2.00121111392L. Svoboda1.73147711113
O. Mezera10
LSep 6 · 12:24M. Kocvara1.53119113113O. Mezera2.3871191172LSep 6 · 11:15O. Mezera2.20811771L. Adam1.6111511113LSep 6 · 10:15O. Mezera2.751112461J. Sr1.4091411113LSep 6 · 09:15O. Mezera2.208990M. Kocvara1.611111113LSep 5 · 20:44J. Sr1.331111113O. Mezera3.251440WSep 5 · 19:15L. Veigl1.53114115142O. Mezera2.38611511153WSep 5 · 18:45O. Mezera3.00121476123J. Sr1.3610121111102LAug 15 · 07:45O. Mezera2.00581191L. Svoboda1.7311117113WAug 14 · 20:18L. Svoboda1.611151091O. Mezera2.2041112113LAug 14 · 18:15O. Mezera2.00121111392L. Svoboda1.73147711113
Upcoming Matches
L. Svoboda
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O. Mezera
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