TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12435623
Played Aug 15Finished
Josef Chalupa
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1167111171210––
Lukas Svoboda
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:57 and never touched — 69.9% is still 69.9%
Graded at full timeJosef Chalupa to win
69.9%
69.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJosef Chalupa above · Lukas Svoboda below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 75 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Josef Chalupa at 69.9%
75 points played in total.
H2H Josef Chalupa 21–8 Lukas Svoboda Lukas Svoboda has won 8 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:57What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Chalupa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-8 in 29
Chalupa
Correct
gap of 13 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chalupa 1755 vs Svoboda 1602
Chalupa
Correct
both rated, 152 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chalupa 80% vs Svoboda 40%
Chalupa
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chalupa 70% vs Svoboda 30%
Chalupa
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chalupa +3 · Svoboda -2
Chalupa
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Chalupa) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chalupa form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChalupa 1.53 / Svoboda 2.38
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Chalupa)+11.0pp
Setka Cup · #12435623
Chalupa1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 45 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it77% 26 of 34
Svoboda2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 14 of 34
Down 0–1, comes back24% 4 of 17
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChalupa8wins
AwaySvoboda2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderChalupa leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChalupa100%6 of 6
AwaySvoboda50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chalupa6Svoboda4n = 10Chalupa took 6 of 10
S2Chalupa9Svoboda1n = 10Chalupa took 9 of 10
S3Chalupa6Svoboda4n = 10Chalupa took 6 of 10
S4Chalupa5Svoboda1n = 6Chalupa took 5 of 6
S5Chalupa2Svoboda2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricChalupaSvobodaC − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.332.4+7.9per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChalupaSvobodaBasisWin rate · lifetime194 / 352 vs 80 / 17455.1%46%194 / 352 vs 80 / 174Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.138.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupaChalupa 1.53/Svoboda 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.8%
Chalupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chalupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 12 · 15:15J. Chalupa—111510113L. Svoboda—2131271
LSep 3 · 05:30J. Chalupa—811116112L. Svoboda—117911133
WAug 26 · 14:15J. Chalupa—491111113L. Svoboda—11115642
WAug 26 · 08:45J. Chalupa—11118113L. Svoboda—971181
WAug 26 · 06:45J. Chalupa—1111113L. Svoboda—8980
WAug 25 · 09:10J. Chalupa—1111113L. Svoboda—4850
LAug 25 · 06:30J. Chalupa—31251152L. Svoboda—1110117113
WAug 12 · 08:40J. Chalupa—1111113L. Svoboda—7940
WAug 12 · 07:30J. Chalupa—9111011113L. Svoboda—11712132
WAug 11 · 08:20J. Chalupa—1113113L. Svoboda—41160
J. Chalupa10
WSep 6 · 16:29J. Chalupa1.4411812113S. Rejent2.638111071LSep 6 · 15:45J. Chalupa1.80111011992V. Burylov1.91812911113WSep 6 · 14:15S. Rejent2.634130J. Chalupa1.441111113LSep 6 · 13:45D. Gasparovic2.1081111113J. Chalupa1.67116791WSep 5 · 08:29J. Chalupa1.61121211133D. Gasparovic2.20101013111LSep 5 · 07:45L. Veigl2.10311811113J. Chalupa1.6711911982WSep 5 · 06:45D. Gasparovic2.20911521J. Chalupa1.6111711113LSep 5 · 05:15M. Zelinka1.83611911113J. Chalupa1.8311811992LAug 23 · 13:05J. Chalupa1.831271291L. Heinzl1.83101114113LAug 23 · 12:00L. Heinzl1.8311712133J. Chalupa1.8341110111
L. Svoboda10
WAug 31 · 16:49V. Grubr2.388880L. Svoboda1.531111113WAug 31 · 15:15L. Svoboda1.5791111113O. Mezera2.25119561WAug 31 · 14:15L. Svoboda1.8312116123A. Radkovsky1.8310511101WAug 31 · 13:15L. Svoboda1.611111113V. Grubr2.207780LAug 15 · 08:50L. Svoboda2.38129771J. Chalupa1.53101111113WAug 15 · 07:45O. Mezera2.00581191L. Svoboda1.7311117113WAug 15 · 06:45M. Kocvara1.6712714642L. Svoboda2.1010111211113LAug 14 · 20:18L. Svoboda1.611151091O. Mezera2.2041112113LAug 14 · 19:45L. Svoboda1.738116101M. Vyskocil2.0011711123WAug 14 · 18:15O. Mezera2.00121111392L. Svoboda1.73147711113
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