TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12438288
Played Aug 15Finished
Lukas Svoboda
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1210911711711––
Josef Chalupa
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:43 and never touched — 71.8% is still 71.8%
Graded at full timeJosef Chalupa to win
71.8%
71.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Svoboda above · Josef Chalupa below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 78 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Josef Chalupa at 71.8%
78 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Svoboda 8–23 Josef Chalupa Lukas Svoboda has won 8 of their 31 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:43What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Chalupa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-23 in 31
Chalupa
Correct
gap of 15 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svoboda 1607 vs Chalupa 1822
Chalupa
Correct
both rated, 215 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svoboda 40% vs Chalupa 80%
Chalupa
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svoboda 40% vs Chalupa 70%
Chalupa
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Svoboda +2 · Chalupa -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Chalupa)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chalupa form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvoboda 2.38 / Chalupa 1.53
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Chalupa)+11.0pp
Setka Cup · #12438288
Svoboda2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 14 of 34
Down 0–1, comes back24% 4 of 17
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Chalupa1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 45 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it77% 26 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSvoboda2wins
AwayChalupa8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderChalupa leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvoboda50%2 of 4
AwayChalupa100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svoboda4Chalupa6n = 10Chalupa took 6 of 10
S2Svoboda2Chalupa8n = 10Chalupa took 8 of 10
S3Svoboda3Chalupa7n = 10Chalupa took 7 of 10
S4Svoboda1Chalupa6n = 7Chalupa took 6 of 7
S5Svoboda2Chalupa1n = 3Svoboda took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSvobodaChalupaS − CBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.840.0−6.2per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvobodaChalupaBasisWin rate · lifetime82 / 178 vs 201 / 36046.1%55.8%82 / 178 vs 201 / 360Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.140.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupaSvoboda 2.38/Chalupa 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.8%
Chalupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chalupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 15 · 08:50L. Svoboda—129771J. Chalupa—101111113
LAug 15 · 05:15L. Svoboda—6117101J. Chalupa—11711123
LJul 12 · 15:15L. Svoboda—2131271J. Chalupa—111510113
WSep 3 · 05:30L. Svoboda—117911133J. Chalupa—811116112
LAug 26 · 14:15L. Svoboda—11115642J. Chalupa—491111113
LAug 26 · 08:45L. Svoboda—971181J. Chalupa—11118113
LAug 26 · 06:45L. Svoboda—8980J. Chalupa—1111113
LAug 25 · 09:10L. Svoboda—4850J. Chalupa—1111113
WAug 25 · 06:30L. Svoboda—1110117113J. Chalupa—31251152
LAug 12 · 08:40L. Svoboda—7940J. Chalupa—1111113
L. Svoboda10
WAug 31 · 16:49V. Grubr2.388880L. Svoboda1.531111113WAug 31 · 15:15L. Svoboda1.5791111113O. Mezera2.25119561WAug 31 · 14:15L. Svoboda1.8312116123A. Radkovsky1.8310511101WAug 31 · 13:15L. Svoboda1.611111113V. Grubr2.207780WAug 15 · 07:45O. Mezera2.00581191L. Svoboda1.7311117113WAug 15 · 06:45M. Kocvara1.6712714642L. Svoboda2.1010111211113LAug 15 · 05:15J. Chalupa1.5311711123L. Svoboda2.386117101LAug 14 · 20:18L. Svoboda1.611151091O. Mezera2.2041112113LAug 14 · 19:45L. Svoboda1.738116101M. Vyskocil2.0011711123WAug 14 · 18:15O. Mezera2.00121111392L. Svoboda1.73147711113
J. Chalupa10
WSep 6 · 16:29J. Chalupa1.4411812113S. Rejent2.638111071LSep 6 · 15:45J. Chalupa1.80111011992V. Burylov1.91812911113WSep 6 · 14:15S. Rejent2.634130J. Chalupa1.441111113LSep 6 · 13:45D. Gasparovic2.1081111113J. Chalupa1.67116791WSep 5 · 08:29J. Chalupa1.61121211133D. Gasparovic2.20101013111LSep 5 · 07:45L. Veigl2.10311811113J. Chalupa1.6711911982WSep 5 · 06:45D. Gasparovic2.20911521J. Chalupa1.6111711113LSep 5 · 05:15M. Zelinka1.83611911113J. Chalupa1.8311811992LAug 23 · 13:05J. Chalupa1.831271291L. Heinzl1.83101114113WAug 15 · 05:15J. Chalupa1.5311711123L. Svoboda2.386117101
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