TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12435511
Played Aug 15Finished
Ondrej Mezera
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511811117911––
Lukas Svoboda
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:02 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeLukas Svoboda to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Mezera above · Lukas Svoboda below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 73 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Lukas Svoboda at 57.7%
73 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Mezera 2–4 Lukas Svoboda Ondrej Mezera has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:02What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Svoboda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Svoboda
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mezera 1584 vs Svoboda 1607
Svoboda
Correct
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mezera 40% vs Svoboda 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mezera 40% vs Svoboda 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mezera -1 · Svoboda +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Svoboda) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svoboda form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMezera 2.00 / Svoboda 1.73
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Svoboda)+3.0pp
Setka Cup · #12435511
Mezera2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog44% won 103 of 236
Down 0–1, comes back30% 42 of 138
Down 0–2, comes back14% 10 of 71
Svoboda1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 23 of 38
Up 2–0, closes it90% 9 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it79% 15 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeMezera2wins
AwaySvoboda4wins
2 of 6 to a deciderSvoboda leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMezeran = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySvoboda75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mezera2Svoboda4n = 6Svoboda took 4 of 6
S2Mezera5Svoboda1n = 6Mezera took 5 of 6
S3Mezera4Svoboda2n = 6Mezera took 4 of 6
S4Mezera1Svoboda4n = 5Svoboda took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricMezeraSvobodaM − SBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match38.040.5−2.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMezeraSvobodaBasisWin rate · lifetime424 / 819 vs 82 / 17851.8%46.1%424 / 819 vs 82 / 178Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match41.138.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvobodaMezera 2.00/Svoboda 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.7%
Svoboda · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Svoboda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LAug 15 · 07:45O. Mezera—581191L. Svoboda—11117113
WAug 14 · 20:18O. Mezera—41112113L. Svoboda—1151091
LAug 14 · 18:15O. Mezera—121111392L. Svoboda—147711113
WJul 7 · 15:15O. Mezera—1111113L. Svoboda—6960
LJul 6 · 16:18O. Mezera—121169132L. Svoboda—1091111153
LJul 6 · 15:15O. Mezera—311761L. Svoboda—11811113
O. Mezera10
LSep 6 · 12:24M. Kocvara1.53119113113O. Mezera2.3871191172LSep 6 · 11:15O. Mezera2.20811771L. Adam1.6111511113LSep 6 · 10:15O. Mezera2.751112461J. Sr1.4091411113LSep 6 · 09:15O. Mezera2.208990M. Kocvara1.611111113LSep 5 · 20:44J. Sr1.331111113O. Mezera3.251440WSep 5 · 19:15L. Veigl1.53114115142O. Mezera2.38611511153WSep 5 · 18:45O. Mezera3.00121476123J. Sr1.3610121111102WSep 5 · 17:45O. Mezera2.00115811113J. Senk1.7341111862LSep 3 · 16:18O. Mezera2.7531111552J. Sr1.40116911113LSep 3 · 15:45S. Rejent1.531191111113O. Mezera2.3891141342
L. Svoboda10
WAug 31 · 16:49V. Grubr2.388880L. Svoboda1.531111113WAug 31 · 15:15L. Svoboda1.5791111113O. Mezera2.25119561WAug 31 · 14:15L. Svoboda1.8312116123A. Radkovsky1.8310511101WAug 31 · 13:15L. Svoboda1.611111113V. Grubr2.207780LAug 15 · 08:50L. Svoboda2.38129771J. Chalupa1.53101111113WAug 15 · 06:45M. Kocvara1.6712714642L. Svoboda2.1010111211113LAug 15 · 05:15J. Chalupa1.5311711123L. Svoboda2.386117101LAug 14 · 20:18L. Svoboda1.611151091O. Mezera2.2041112113LAug 14 · 19:45L. Svoboda1.738116101M. Vyskocil2.0011711123WAug 14 · 18:15O. Mezera2.00121111392L. Svoboda1.73147711113
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