TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12428552
Played Aug 14Finished
Ondrej Mezera
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1214117117311911
Lukas Svoboda
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:31 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeLukas Svoboda to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Mezera above · Lukas Svoboda below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 96 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Lukas Svoboda at 55.8%
96 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Mezera 1–2 Lukas Svoboda Ondrej Mezera has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:31What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Svoboda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mezera 1567 vs Svoboda 1623
Svoboda
Correct
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mezera 40% vs Svoboda 20%
Mezera
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mezera 40% vs Svoboda 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mezera -2 · Svoboda -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Svoboda) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svoboda form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMezera 2.00 / Svoboda 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Svoboda)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #12428552
Mezera2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 103 of 232
Down 0–1, comes back32% 44 of 136
Down 0–2, comes back15% 10 of 69
Svoboda1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 21 of 33
Up 2–0, closes it89% 8 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it81% 13 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeMezera1wins
AwaySvoboda2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderSvoboda leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mezera2Svoboda1n = 3Mezera took 2 of 3
S2Mezera3Svoboda0n = 3Mezera took 3 of 3
S3Mezera1Svoboda2n = 3Svoboda took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricMezeraSvobodaM − SBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match37.039.3−2.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMezeraSvobodaBasisWin rate · lifetime421 / 812 vs 79 / 17151.9%46.2%421 / 812 vs 79 / 171Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match41.237.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvobodaMezera 2.00/Svoboda 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Svoboda · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Svoboda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WJul 7 · 15:15O. Mezera—1111113L. Svoboda—6960
LJul 6 · 16:18O. Mezera—121169132L. Svoboda—1091111153
LJul 6 · 15:15O. Mezera—311761L. Svoboda—11811113
O. Mezera10
LSep 6 · 12:24M. Kocvara1.53119113113O. Mezera2.3871191172LSep 6 · 11:15O. Mezera2.20811771L. Adam1.6111511113LSep 6 · 10:15O. Mezera2.751112461J. Sr1.4091411113LSep 6 · 09:15O. Mezera2.208990M. Kocvara1.611111113LSep 5 · 20:44J. Sr1.331111113O. Mezera3.251440WSep 5 · 19:15L. Veigl1.53114115142O. Mezera2.38611511153WSep 5 · 18:45O. Mezera3.00121476123J. Sr1.3610121111102WSep 5 · 17:45O. Mezera2.00115811113J. Senk1.7341111862LSep 3 · 16:18O. Mezera2.7531111552J. Sr1.40116911113LSep 3 · 15:45S. Rejent1.531191111113O. Mezera2.3891141342
L. Svoboda10
WAug 31 · 16:49V. Grubr2.388880L. Svoboda1.531111113WAug 31 · 15:15L. Svoboda1.5791111113O. Mezera2.25119561WAug 31 · 14:15L. Svoboda1.8312116123A. Radkovsky1.8310511101WAug 31 · 13:15L. Svoboda1.611111113V. Grubr2.207780LAug 15 · 08:50L. Svoboda2.38129771J. Chalupa1.53101111113WAug 15 · 07:45O. Mezera2.00581191L. Svoboda1.7311117113WAug 15 · 06:45M. Kocvara1.6712714642L. Svoboda2.1010111211113LAug 15 · 05:15J. Chalupa1.5311711123L. Svoboda2.386117101LAug 14 · 20:18L. Svoboda1.611151091O. Mezera2.2041112113LAug 14 · 19:45L. Svoboda1.738116101M. Vyskocil2.0011711123
Upcoming Matches
O. Mezera
L. Svoboda
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.