TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100409
Played Sep 9Finished
Lukas Svoboda
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
116411411711––
Michal Stibor
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:06 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Stibor to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Svoboda above · Michal Stibor below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 65 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Michal Stibor at 54.0%
65 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Svoboda 3–2 Michal Stibor Michal Stibor has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:06What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Svoboda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svoboda 1656 vs Stibor 1791
Stibor
Correct
both rated, 135 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svoboda 60% vs Stibor 80%
Stibor
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svoboda 60% vs Stibor 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Svoboda -2 · Stibor +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stibor)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stibor form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvoboda 1.80 / Stibor 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Stibor)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13100409
Svoboda1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 23 of 36
Up 2–0, closes it91% 10 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it80% 16 of 20
Stibor1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 24 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back26% 10 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeSvoboda3wins
AwayStibor2wins
2 of 5 to a deciderSvoboda leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvoboda50%2 of 4
AwayStiborn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svoboda4Stibor1n = 5Svoboda took 4 of 5
S2Svoboda3Stibor2n = 5Svoboda took 3 of 5
S3Svoboda2Stibor3n = 5Stibor took 3 of 5
S4Svoboda2Stibor2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricSvobodaStiborSvoboda − StiborBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match38.036.6+1.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvobodaStiborBasisWin rate · lifetime69 / 154 vs 174 / 32544.8%53.5%69 / 154 vs 174 / 325Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StiborSvoboda 1.80/Stibor 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Stibor · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Stibor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 9 · 11:15L. Svoboda—114471M. Stibor—61111113
WJul 14 · 05:30L. Svoboda—11113113M. Stibor—671191
WAug 26 · 05:45L. Svoboda—1011711113M. Stibor—12911862
LJul 16 · 11:15L. Svoboda—11911852M. Stibor—711511113
WJul 14 · 07:45L. Svoboda—1111123M. Stibor—64100
L. Svoboda10
WSep 9 · 12:19L. Dobias1.5381410131L. Svoboda2.38111212153LSep 9 · 10:15L. Svoboda2.25107111182M. Zelinka1.57121196113LSep 9 · 09:15L. Svoboda2.381277101L. Dobias1.53101111123WAug 31 · 16:49V. Grubr2.388880L. Svoboda1.531111113WAug 31 · 15:15L. Svoboda1.5791111113O. Mezera2.25119561WAug 31 · 14:15L. Svoboda1.8312116123A. Radkovsky1.8310511101WAug 31 · 13:15L. Svoboda1.611111113V. Grubr2.207780LAug 15 · 08:50L. Svoboda2.38129771J. Chalupa1.53101111113WAug 15 · 07:45O. Mezera2.00581191L. Svoboda1.7311117113WAug 15 · 06:45M. Kocvara1.6712714642L. Svoboda2.1010111211113
M. Stibor10
WSep 9 · 10:45M. Stibor2.2011811113L. Dobias1.61311691WSep 9 · 09:45M. Stibor2.2011811133M. Zelinka1.617111111LSep 3 · 08:44M. Stibor1.67681491L. Adam2.10111112113WSep 3 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.7381380M. Stibor2.001115113WSep 3 · 06:45M. Makara2.6311970M. Stibor1.441311113WSep 3 · 05:15L. Adam2.1021111562M. Stibor1.67117511113LAug 31 · 12:18M. Vyskocil1.67441111133M. Stibor2.10111199112LAug 31 · 11:15M. Stibor1.738770M. Vyskocil2.001111113WAug 31 · 10:15M. Stibor1.501161111123L. Rulc2.50131197102WAug 31 · 09:15M. Stibor1.501181411113M. Kocvara2.50131112762
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