TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100718
Played Sep 9Finished
Michal Stibor
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1178111111311––
Matus Zelinka
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:12 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeMatus Zelinka to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Stibor above · Matus Zelinka below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-1
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 73 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Matus Zelinka at 59.3%
73 points played in total.
H2H Michal Stibor 2–6 Matus Zelinka Michal Stibor has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:12What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Zelinka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-6 in 8
Zelinka
Wrong
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stibor 1733 vs Zelinka 1707
Stibor
Correct
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stibor 60% vs Zelinka 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stibor 70% vs Zelinka 50%
Stibor
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stibor -1 · Zelinka +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Zelinka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stibor form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStibor 2.20 / Zelinka 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Zelinka)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13100718
Stibor2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 24 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back26% 10 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Zelinka1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite53% won 69 of 130
Up 2–0, closes it87% 26 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it77% 46 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeStibor2wins
AwayZelinka6wins
2 of 8 to a deciderZelinka leads 6–2, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStibor66.7%2 of 3
AwayZelinka100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stibor3Zelinka5n = 8Zelinka took 5 of 8
S2Stibor3Zelinka5n = 8Zelinka took 5 of 8
S3Stibor4Zelinka4n = 8split evenly
S4Stibor1Zelinka6n = 7Zelinka took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away450%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricStiborZelinkaS − ZBasisWins26−4in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match38.244.4−6.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStiborZelinkaBasisWin rate · lifetime171 / 324 vs 201 / 38452.8%52.3%171 / 324 vs 201 / 384Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZelinkaStibor 2.20/Zelinka 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.3%
Zelinka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Stibor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 8 · 10:15M. Stibor—7112171M. Zelinka—11911193
LJul 28 · 09:45M. Stibor—4114111M. Zelinka—11811133
LMay 11 · 12:18M. Stibor—1191341M. Zelinka—131111113
WMay 11 · 11:15M. Stibor—118178133M. Zelinka—5111511112
LMay 6 · 10:15M. Stibor—1210751M. Zelinka—101211113
WApr 29 · 11:45M. Stibor—11414113M. Zelinka—8111291
LApr 27 · 12:00M. Stibor—91111982M. Zelinka—115811113
LJan 20 · 09:00M. Stibor—6890M. Zelinka—1111113
M. Stibor10
LSep 3 · 08:44M. Stibor1.67681491L. Adam2.10111112113WSep 3 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.7381380M. Stibor2.001115113WSep 3 · 06:45M. Makara2.6311970M. Stibor1.441311113WSep 3 · 05:15L. Adam2.1021111562M. Stibor1.67117511113LAug 31 · 12:18M. Vyskocil1.67441111133M. Stibor2.10111199112LAug 31 · 11:15M. Stibor1.738770M. Vyskocil2.001111113WAug 31 · 10:15M. Stibor1.501161111123L. Rulc2.50131197102WAug 31 · 09:15M. Stibor1.501181411113M. Kocvara2.50131112762WAug 26 · 08:23M. Stibor1.4011164113M. Kovarik2.757141191WAug 26 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.5091350M. Stibor1.501115113
M. Zelinka10
WSep 9 · 10:15L. Svoboda2.25107111182M. Zelinka1.57121196113WSep 8 · 08:18L. Dobias1.73971181M. Zelinka2.0011117113LSep 8 · 07:15M. Zelinka2.10711912102L. Dobias1.671161110123LSep 8 · 06:15M. Zelinka1.835980L. Heinzl1.831111113WSep 8 · 05:15M. Zelinka1.531111113V. Grubr2.387970WSep 7 · 08:49M. Zelinka1.8311812113L. Heinzl1.839111091WSep 7 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.83551691M. Zelinka1.83111114113LSep 7 · 06:45L. Veigl2.3811611113M. Zelinka1.53911951LSep 7 · 05:15P. Wasik1.531110117113M. Zelinka2.3831281182LSep 5 · 09:00L. Veigl2.2012611113M. Zelinka1.611011971
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.