TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13097744
Played Sep 8Finished
Ladislav Dobias
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911711117811––
Matus Zelinka
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
How it is goingLadislav Dobias above · Matus Zelinka below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 75 set 4, 8-11
75 points played in total.
H2H Ladislav Dobias 32–26 Matus Zelinka Matus Zelinka has won 26 of their 58 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Dobias beat Zelinka 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Dobias)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dobias form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDobias 1.73 / Zelinka 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Dobias)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13097744
Dobias1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 205 of 348
Up 2–0, closes it94% 66 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it80% 146 of 182
Zelinka2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog53% won 32 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back36% 13 of 36
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDobias5wins
AwayZelinka5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDobias62.5%5 of 8
AwayZelinkan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dobias8Zelinka2n = 10Dobias took 8 of 10
S2Dobias4Zelinka6n = 10Zelinka took 6 of 10
S3Dobias4Zelinka6n = 10Zelinka took 6 of 10
S4Dobias2Zelinka4n = 6Zelinka took 4 of 6
S5Dobias2Zelinka1n = 3Dobias took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDobiasZelinkaD − ZBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match36.135.5+0.6per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDobiasZelinkaBasisWin rate · lifetime410 / 734 vs 200 / 38355.9%52.2%410 / 734 vs 200 / 383Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match41.139.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DobiasDobias 1.73/Zelinka 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.3%
Dobias · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zelinka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 07:15L. Dobias—1161110123M. Zelinka—711912102
LAug 28 · 08:23L. Dobias—117681M. Zelinka—91111113
LAug 28 · 05:45L. Dobias—1194101M. Zelinka—81111123
WAug 25 · 08:53L. Dobias—113811113M. Zelinka—61111532
LAug 25 · 07:45L. Dobias—111091152M. Zelinka—912113113
WAug 24 · 06:15L. Dobias—1111123M. Zelinka—77100
WAug 7 · 08:38L. Dobias—1111113M. Zelinka—6690
LAug 7 · 06:30L. Dobias—7970M. Zelinka—1111113
WJul 29 · 05:15L. Dobias—1111113M. Zelinka—7490
LMay 10 · 12:18L. Dobias—811581M. Zelinka—11911113
L. Dobias10
WSep 8 · 07:15M. Zelinka2.10711912102L. Dobias1.671161110123WSep 8 · 06:45L. Dobias1.501111123V. Grubr2.5089100WSep 8 · 05:45L. Dobias1.53111111113L. Heinzl2.38139771LAug 28 · 08:23L. Dobias1.57117681M. Zelinka2.2591111113WAug 28 · 07:45L. Dobias1.73911913113V. Burylov2.00115111192LAug 28 · 06:15P. Wasik1.8311711113L. Dobias1.83711681LAug 28 · 05:45M. Zelinka2.1081111123L. Dobias1.671194101WAug 26 · 12:13L. Dobias1.91911712113P. Wasik1.80115111062LAug 26 · 11:45L. Heinzl2.251213113L. Dobias1.57101190WAug 26 · 10:45M. Kocvara2.5031111982L. Dobias1.50119611113
M. Zelinka10
LSep 8 · 07:15M. Zelinka2.10711912102L. Dobias1.671161110123LSep 8 · 06:15M. Zelinka1.835980L. Heinzl1.831111113WSep 8 · 05:15M. Zelinka1.531111113V. Grubr2.387970WSep 7 · 08:49M. Zelinka1.8311812113L. Heinzl1.839111091WSep 7 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.83551691M. Zelinka1.83111114113LSep 7 · 06:45L. Veigl2.3811611113M. Zelinka1.53911951LSep 7 · 05:15P. Wasik1.531110117113M. Zelinka2.3831281182LSep 5 · 09:00L. Veigl2.2012611113M. Zelinka1.611011971WAug 28 · 08:23L. Dobias1.57117681M. Zelinka2.2591111113WAug 28 · 05:45M. Zelinka2.1081111123L. Dobias1.671194101
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