TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094639
Played Sep 8Finished
Ladislav Dobias
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1113119117117––
Lukas Heinzl
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:49 and never touched — 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeLadislav Dobias to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLadislav Dobias above · Lukas Heinzl below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 80 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Ladislav Dobias at 62.0%
80 points played in total.
H2H Ladislav Dobias 44–29 Lukas Heinzl Lukas Heinzl has won 29 of their 73 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:49What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Dobias
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
44-29 in 73
Dobias
Correct
gap of 15 in 73, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dobias 1775 vs Heinzl 1703
Dobias
Correct
both rated, 72 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dobias 40% vs Heinzl 20%
Dobias
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dobias 50% vs Heinzl 30%
Dobias
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dobias -1 · Heinzl -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Dobias)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Heinzl form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDobias 1.53 / Heinzl 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Dobias)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13094639
Dobias1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 205 of 348
Up 2–0, closes it94% 66 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it80% 146 of 182
Heinzl2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog48% won 46 of 95
Down 0–1, comes back24% 11 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back14% 3 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDobias6wins
AwayHeinzl4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderDobias leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDobias85.7%6 of 7
AwayHeinzl100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dobias7Heinzl3n = 10Dobias took 7 of 10
S2Dobias6Heinzl4n = 10Dobias took 6 of 10
S3Dobias2Heinzl8n = 10Heinzl took 8 of 10
S4Dobias5Heinzl1n = 6Dobias took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricDobiasHeinzlD − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.432.5+4.9per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDobiasHeinzlBasisWin rate · lifetime407 / 731 vs 355 / 64955.7%54.7%407 / 731 vs 355 / 649Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match41.139.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DobiasDobias 1.53/Heinzl 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62%
Dobias · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Dobias won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 26 · 11:45L. Dobias—101190L. Heinzl—1213113
WAug 24 · 05:45L. Dobias—1111113L. Heinzl—9660
WAug 21 · 09:45L. Dobias—11116113L. Heinzl—731131
WJul 29 · 08:48L. Dobias—11118113L. Heinzl—971151
WJul 29 · 07:45L. Dobias—11118113L. Heinzl—771181
WJul 28 · 07:15L. Dobias—1111113L. Heinzl—9370
LJul 24 · 06:45L. Dobias—9760L. Heinzl—1111113
WJul 20 · 14:45L. Dobias—118911113L. Heinzl—51111452
LJul 20 · 07:15L. Dobias—10153101L. Heinzl—121311123
LJun 15 · 20:14L. Dobias—11881192L. Heinzl—411116113
L. Dobias10
WSep 8 · 06:45L. Dobias1.501111123V. Grubr2.5089100LAug 28 · 08:23L. Dobias1.57117681M. Zelinka2.2591111113WAug 28 · 07:45L. Dobias1.73911913113V. Burylov2.00115111192LAug 28 · 06:15P. Wasik1.8311711113L. Dobias1.83711681LAug 28 · 05:45M. Zelinka2.1081111123L. Dobias1.671194101WAug 26 · 12:13L. Dobias1.91911712113P. Wasik1.80115111062LAug 26 · 11:45L. Heinzl2.251213113L. Dobias1.57101190WAug 26 · 10:45M. Kocvara2.5031111982L. Dobias1.50119611113WAug 26 · 09:15P. Wasik1.808880L. Dobias1.911111113WAug 25 · 08:53M. Zelinka2.1061111532L. Dobias1.67113811113
L. Heinzl10
WSep 8 · 06:15M. Zelinka1.835980L. Heinzl1.831111113LSep 7 · 08:49M. Zelinka1.8311812113L. Heinzl1.839111091LSep 7 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.83551691M. Zelinka1.83111114113WSep 7 · 06:15P. Wasik1.531410981L. Heinzl2.38121211113LSep 7 · 05:45L. Veigl2.50111111113L. Heinzl1.50781361LSep 3 · 08:14L. Heinzl1.6781181182M. Makara2.10116113113LSep 3 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.7381380M. Stibor2.001115113LSep 3 · 06:15L. Adam2.0091111113L. Heinzl1.73113791WSep 3 · 05:45M. Makara2.201131191L. Heinzl1.6113119113WAug 26 · 11:45L. Heinzl2.251213113L. Dobias1.57101190
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