TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094589
Played Sep 8Finished
Matus Zelinka
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117119117––––
Vojtech Grubr
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:41 and never touched — 65.2% is still 65.2%
Graded at full timeMatus Zelinka to win
65.2%
65.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatus Zelinka above · Vojtech Grubr below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 56 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Matus Zelinka at 65.2%
56 points played in total.
H2H Matus Zelinka 7–3 Vojtech Grubr Vojtech Grubr has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:41What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Zelinka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-3 in 10
Zelinka
Correct
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zelinka 1712 vs Grubr 1630
Zelinka
Correct
both rated, 82 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zelinka 40% vs Grubr 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zelinka 50% vs Grubr 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zelinka +2 · Grubr -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Zelinka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zelinka form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZelinka 1.53 / Grubr 2.38
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Zelinka)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13094589
Zelinka1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 70 of 130
Up 2–0, closes it86% 25 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it76% 45 of 59
Grubr2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 65 of 148
Down 0–1, comes back30% 24 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZelinka7wins
AwayGrubr3wins
6 of 10 to a deciderZelinka leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZelinka66.7%2 of 3
AwayGrubr28.6%2 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zelinka3Grubr7n = 10Grubr took 7 of 10
S2Zelinka6Grubr4n = 10Zelinka took 6 of 10
S3Zelinka7Grubr3n = 10Zelinka took 7 of 10
S4Zelinka6Grubr2n = 8Zelinka took 6 of 8
S5Zelinka4Grubr2n = 6Zelinka took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricZelinkaGrubrZ − GBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match45.540.9+4.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZelinkaGrubrBasisWin rate · lifetime199 / 380 vs 234 / 46652.4%50.2%199 / 380 vs 234 / 466Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.940.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZelinkaZelinka 1.53/Grubr 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.2%
Zelinka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Zelinka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 27 · 20:38M. Zelinka—1111113V. Grubr—6890
WJul 27 · 18:00M. Zelinka—711411113V. Grubr—11811562
LMay 6 · 09:15M. Zelinka—10131111132V. Grubr—121573153
LApr 15 · 20:49M. Zelinka—156491V. Grubr—131111113
WApr 15 · 18:15M. Zelinka—81111163V. Grubr—1157141
WMar 19 · 09:58M. Zelinka—961111133V. Grubr—111185112
WMar 19 · 08:45M. Zelinka—10121111113V. Grubr—12148992
WMar 10 · 19:15M. Zelinka—1111113V. Grubr—9780
LMar 4 · 19:45M. Zelinka—91171182V. Grubr—113113113
WMay 13 · 05:15M. Zelinka—11111111123V. Grubr—135813102
M. Zelinka10
WSep 7 · 08:49M. Zelinka1.8311812113L. Heinzl1.839111091WSep 7 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.83551691M. Zelinka1.83111114113LSep 7 · 06:45L. Veigl2.3811611113M. Zelinka1.53911951LSep 7 · 05:15P. Wasik1.531110117113M. Zelinka2.3831281182LSep 5 · 09:00L. Veigl2.2012611113M. Zelinka1.611011971WSep 5 · 07:15M. Zelinka2.001171312123D. Gasparovic1.739111114102LSep 5 · 06:15M. Zelinka1.50811881L. Veigl2.5011911113WSep 5 · 05:15M. Zelinka1.83611911113J. Chalupa1.8311811992LAug 30 · 08:28M. Zelinka1.73761181R. Pisa2.0011115113WAug 30 · 07:45V. Burylov1.801314111082M. Zelinka1.911512912113
V. Grubr10
LSep 2 · 12:13A. Radkovsky2.1011191217113V. Grubr1.67817141992LSep 2 · 11:15V. Grubr1.53118281M. Vyskocil2.3891111113WSep 2 · 10:15V. Grubr1.67117511113J. Dolezal2.1061111972LSep 2 · 09:15V. Grubr1.61691181A. Radkovsky2.2011117113WSep 1 · 12:54L. Rulc1.831111810102V. Grubr1.83881112123WSep 1 · 11:15V. Grubr1.67611511113A. Radkovsky2.1011611792LSep 1 · 10:15V. Grubr1.834116101L. Rulc1.8311511123WSep 1 · 09:15V. Grubr1.911111113T. Liska1.809990LAug 31 · 16:49V. Grubr2.388880L. Svoboda1.531111113WAug 31 · 15:45A. Radkovsky1.831011371V. Grubr1.8312911113
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