TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100714
Played Sep 9Finished
Lukas Svoboda
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1012711119116811
Matus Zelinka
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:12 and never touched — 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeMatus Zelinka to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Svoboda above · Matus Zelinka below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 96 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Matus Zelinka at 63.7%
96 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Svoboda 3–6 Matus Zelinka Lukas Svoboda has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:12What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Zelinka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-6 in 9
Zelinka
Correct
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svoboda 1674 vs Zelinka 1697
Zelinka
Correct
both rated, 22 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svoboda 80% vs Zelinka 40%
Svoboda
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svoboda 60% vs Zelinka 40%
Svoboda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Svoboda -1 · Zelinka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Zelinka) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zelinka form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvoboda 2.25 / Zelinka 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Zelinka)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13100714
Svoboda2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 15 of 35
Down 0–1, comes back28% 5 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Zelinka1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite53% won 69 of 130
Up 2–0, closes it87% 26 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it77% 46 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeSvoboda3wins
AwayZelinka6wins
3 of 9 to a deciderZelinka leads 6–3, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvoboda100%3 of 3
AwayZelinka100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svoboda3Zelinka6n = 9Zelinka took 6 of 9
S2Svoboda6Zelinka3n = 9Svoboda took 6 of 9
S3Svoboda1Zelinka8n = 9Zelinka took 8 of 9
S4Svoboda3Zelinka2n = 5Svoboda took 3 of 5
S5Svoboda1Zelinka2n = 3Zelinka took 2 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away333%
These 9 meetings
MetricSvobodaZelinkaS − ZBasisWins36−3in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match35.937.7−1.8per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvobodaZelinkaBasisWin rate · lifetime69 / 152 vs 201 / 38545.4%52.2%69 / 152 vs 201 / 385Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZelinkaSvoboda 2.25/Zelinka 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Zelinka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Zelinka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WJun 14 · 08:33L. Svoboda—111168113M. Zelinka—57111142
LJun 14 · 05:30L. Svoboda—911911102M. Zelinka—117119123
LAug 17 · 07:15L. Svoboda—11990M. Zelinka—1311113
LMay 15 · 19:45L. Svoboda—91191172M. Zelinka—117119113
LMay 8 · 05:45L. Svoboda—4890M. Zelinka—1111113
LFeb 22 · 08:15L. Svoboda—83110M. Zelinka—1111133
WFeb 21 · 08:15L. Svoboda—11136113M. Zelinka—6111181
WJan 31 · 09:20L. Svoboda—1111113M. Zelinka—9750
LJan 31 · 08:15L. Svoboda—6115111M. Zelinka—11711133
L. Svoboda10
LSep 9 · 09:15L. Svoboda2.381277101L. Dobias1.53101111123WAug 31 · 16:49V. Grubr2.388880L. Svoboda1.531111113WAug 31 · 15:15L. Svoboda1.5791111113O. Mezera2.25119561WAug 31 · 14:15L. Svoboda1.8312116123A. Radkovsky1.8310511101WAug 31 · 13:15L. Svoboda1.611111113V. Grubr2.207780LAug 15 · 08:50L. Svoboda2.38129771J. Chalupa1.53101111113WAug 15 · 07:45O. Mezera2.00581191L. Svoboda1.7311117113WAug 15 · 06:45M. Kocvara1.6712714642L. Svoboda2.1010111211113LAug 15 · 05:15J. Chalupa1.5311711123L. Svoboda2.386117101LAug 14 · 20:18L. Svoboda1.611151091O. Mezera2.2041112113
M. Zelinka10
LSep 9 · 09:45M. Stibor2.2011811133M. Zelinka1.617111111WSep 8 · 08:18L. Dobias1.73971181M. Zelinka2.0011117113LSep 8 · 07:15M. Zelinka2.10711912102L. Dobias1.671161110123LSep 8 · 06:15M. Zelinka1.835980L. Heinzl1.831111113WSep 8 · 05:15M. Zelinka1.531111113V. Grubr2.387970WSep 7 · 08:49M. Zelinka1.8311812113L. Heinzl1.839111091WSep 7 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.83551691M. Zelinka1.83111114113LSep 7 · 06:45L. Veigl2.3811611113M. Zelinka1.53911951LSep 7 · 05:15P. Wasik1.531110117113M. Zelinka2.3831281182LSep 5 · 09:00L. Veigl2.2012611113M. Zelinka1.611011971
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