TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100487
Played Sep 9Finished
Lukas Svoboda
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
12107117111012––
Ladislav Dobias
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:28 and never touched — 64.0% is still 64.0%
Graded at full timeLadislav Dobias to win
64.0%
64.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Svoboda above · Ladislav Dobias below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 80 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Ladislav Dobias at 64.0%
80 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Svoboda 4–6 Ladislav Dobias Lukas Svoboda has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:28What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Dobias
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-6 in 10
Dobias
Correct
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svoboda 1682 vs Dobias 1793
Dobias
Correct
both rated, 110 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svoboda 80% vs Dobias 60%
Svoboda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svoboda 60% vs Dobias 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Svoboda +4 · Dobias -1
Svoboda
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Dobias)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svoboda form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvoboda 2.38 / Dobias 1.53
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Dobias)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13100487
Svoboda2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 15 of 35
Down 0–1, comes back28% 5 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Dobias1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 207 of 350
Up 2–0, closes it94% 66 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it80% 147 of 183
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSvoboda4wins
AwayDobias6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDobias leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvoboda50%2 of 4
AwayDobias66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svoboda4Dobias6n = 10Dobias took 6 of 10
S2Svoboda4Dobias6n = 10Dobias took 6 of 10
S3Svoboda5Dobias5n = 10split evenly
S4Svoboda4Dobias5n = 9Dobias took 5 of 9
S5Svoboda2Dobias2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSvobodaDobiasS − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.841.0−2.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvobodaDobiasBasisWin rate · lifetime69 / 151 vs 410 / 73545.7%55.8%69 / 151 vs 410 / 735Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.141.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DobiasSvoboda 2.38/Dobias 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64%
Dobias · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Dobias won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 6 · 10:45L. Svoboda—13911882L. Dobias—1111911113
WAug 5 · 08:44L. Svoboda—811911113L. Dobias—11711362
WAug 5 · 05:45L. Svoboda—11611113L. Dobias—811861
LAug 4 · 16:14L. Svoboda—153771L. Dobias—131111113
LAug 4 · 13:15L. Svoboda—681181L. Dobias—11119113
LAug 4 · 05:45L. Svoboda—7790L. Dobias—1111113
LAug 3 · 20:48L. Svoboda—86111222L. Dobias—1111710113
WAug 3 · 17:15L. Svoboda—911117113L. Dobias—11681162
WJul 16 · 09:15L. Svoboda—11119113L. Dobias—761181
LJun 22 · 07:15L. Svoboda—611691L. Dobias—11811113
L. Svoboda10
WAug 31 · 16:49V. Grubr2.388880L. Svoboda1.531111113WAug 31 · 15:15L. Svoboda1.5791111113O. Mezera2.25119561WAug 31 · 14:15L. Svoboda1.8312116123A. Radkovsky1.8310511101WAug 31 · 13:15L. Svoboda1.611111113V. Grubr2.207780LAug 15 · 08:50L. Svoboda2.38129771J. Chalupa1.53101111113WAug 15 · 07:45O. Mezera2.00581191L. Svoboda1.7311117113WAug 15 · 06:45M. Kocvara1.6712714642L. Svoboda2.1010111211113LAug 15 · 05:15J. Chalupa1.5311711123L. Svoboda2.386117101LAug 14 · 20:18L. Svoboda1.611151091O. Mezera2.2041112113LAug 14 · 19:45L. Svoboda1.738116101M. Vyskocil2.0011711123
L. Dobias10
LSep 8 · 08:18L. Dobias1.73971181M. Zelinka2.0011117113WSep 8 · 07:15M. Zelinka2.10711912102L. Dobias1.671161110123WSep 8 · 06:45L. Dobias1.501111123V. Grubr2.5089100WSep 8 · 05:45L. Dobias1.53111111113L. Heinzl2.38139771LAug 28 · 08:23L. Dobias1.57117681M. Zelinka2.2591111113WAug 28 · 07:45L. Dobias1.73911913113V. Burylov2.00115111192LAug 28 · 06:15P. Wasik1.8311711113L. Dobias1.83711681LAug 28 · 05:45M. Zelinka2.1081111123L. Dobias1.671194101WAug 26 · 12:13L. Dobias1.91911712113P. Wasik1.80115111062LAug 26 · 11:45L. Heinzl2.251213113L. Dobias1.57101190
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