TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100681
Played Sep 9Finished
Michal Stibor
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
113811116119––
Ladislav Dobias
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:07 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeLadislav Dobias to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Stibor above · Ladislav Dobias below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 70 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Ladislav Dobias at 58.9%
70 points played in total.
H2H Michal Stibor 9–16 Ladislav Dobias Michal Stibor has won 9 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:07What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Dobias
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-16 in 25
Dobias
Wrong
gap of 7 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stibor 1744 vs Dobias 1801
Dobias
Wrong
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stibor 80% vs Dobias 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stibor 70% vs Dobias 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stibor +1 · Dobias +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Dobias)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dobias form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStibor 2.20 / Dobias 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Dobias)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13100681
Stibor2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 24 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back26% 10 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Dobias1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 207 of 350
Up 2–0, closes it94% 66 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it80% 147 of 183
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStibor4wins
AwayDobias6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDobias leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStibor75%3 of 4
AwayDobias83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stibor4Dobias6n = 10Dobias took 6 of 10
S2Stibor4Dobias6n = 10Dobias took 6 of 10
S3Stibor7Dobias3n = 10Stibor took 7 of 10
S4Stibor3Dobias4n = 7Dobias took 4 of 7
S5Stibor1Dobias3n = 4Dobias took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricStiborDobiasS − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.439.3−2.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStiborDobiasBasisWin rate · lifetime172 / 324 vs 411 / 73653.1%55.8%172 / 324 vs 411 / 736Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.441.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DobiasStibor 2.20/Dobias 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Dobias · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Stibor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 25 · 06:15M. Stibor—5680L. Dobias—1111113
WAug 20 · 06:45M. Stibor—111111113L. Dobias—913791
LJul 21 · 05:15M. Stibor—411101162L. Dobias—116129113
LJul 20 · 06:15M. Stibor—11611242L. Dobias—711811113
WJun 11 · 06:45M. Stibor—91111113L. Dobias—117881
WJun 9 · 06:15M. Stibor—1111113L. Dobias—9750
LJun 8 · 09:15M. Stibor—691161L. Dobias—11117113
LJun 5 · 08:34M. Stibor—91190L. Dobias—1113113
WJun 5 · 07:30M. Stibor—126117113L. Dobias—101141172
LMay 20 · 12:23M. Stibor—101112362L. Dobias—1281011113
M. Stibor10
WSep 9 · 11:15L. Svoboda1.80114471M. Stibor1.9161111113WSep 9 · 09:45M. Stibor2.2011811133M. Zelinka1.617111111LSep 3 · 08:44M. Stibor1.67681491L. Adam2.10111112113WSep 3 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.7381380M. Stibor2.001115113WSep 3 · 06:45M. Makara2.6311970M. Stibor1.441311113WSep 3 · 05:15L. Adam2.1021111562M. Stibor1.67117511113LAug 31 · 12:18M. Vyskocil1.67441111133M. Stibor2.10111199112LAug 31 · 11:15M. Stibor1.738770M. Vyskocil2.001111113WAug 31 · 10:15M. Stibor1.501161111123L. Rulc2.50131197102WAug 31 · 09:15M. Stibor1.501181411113M. Kocvara2.50131112762
L. Dobias10
LSep 9 · 12:19L. Dobias1.5381410131L. Svoboda2.38111212153LSep 9 · 11:45M. Zelinka2.101111113L. Dobias1.678970WSep 9 · 09:15L. Svoboda2.381277101L. Dobias1.53101111123LSep 8 · 08:18L. Dobias1.73971181M. Zelinka2.0011117113WSep 8 · 07:15M. Zelinka2.10711912102L. Dobias1.671161110123WSep 8 · 06:45L. Dobias1.501111123V. Grubr2.5089100WSep 8 · 05:45L. Dobias1.53111111113L. Heinzl2.38139771LAug 28 · 08:23L. Dobias1.57117681M. Zelinka2.2591111113WAug 28 · 07:45L. Dobias1.73911913113V. Burylov2.00115111192LAug 28 · 06:15P. Wasik1.8311711113L. Dobias1.83711681
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.