TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100481
Played Sep 9Finished
Matus Zelinka
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118119117––––
Ladislav Dobias
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:27 and never touched — 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timeLadislav Dobias to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMatus Zelinka above · Ladislav Dobias below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 10-6
Point 55 set 3, 10-6 — our read held Ladislav Dobias at 57.4%
55 points drawn · the score is 2 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Matus Zelinka 28–32 Ladislav Dobias Matus Zelinka has won 28 of their 60 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:27What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Dobias
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-32 in 60
Dobias
Wrong
gap of 4 in 60, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zelinka 1722 vs Dobias 1745
Dobias
Wrong
both rated, 22 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zelinka 40% vs Dobias 60%
Dobias
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zelinka 50% vs Dobias 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zelinka +1 · Dobias -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Dobias) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZelinka 2.10 / Dobias 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Dobias)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13100481
Zelinka2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog54% won 33 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back37% 13 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Dobias1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 207 of 350
Up 2–0, closes it94% 66 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it80% 147 of 183
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZelinka6wins
AwayDobias4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderZelinka leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZelinka100%3 of 3
AwayDobias57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zelinka3Dobias7n = 10Dobias took 7 of 10
S2Zelinka8Dobias2n = 10Zelinka took 8 of 10
S3Zelinka6Dobias4n = 10Zelinka took 6 of 10
S4Zelinka4Dobias2n = 6Zelinka took 4 of 6
S5Zelinka1Dobias2n = 3Dobias took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricZelinkaDobiasZ − DBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.635.5+1.1per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZelinkaDobiasBasisWin rate · lifetime203 / 387 vs 411 / 73852.5%55.7%203 / 387 vs 411 / 738Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.841.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DobiasZelinka 2.10/Dobias 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.6%
Dobias · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Zelinka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 11:45M. Zelinka—1111113L. Dobias—8970
WSep 8 · 08:18M. Zelinka—11117113L. Dobias—971181
LSep 8 · 07:15M. Zelinka—711912102L. Dobias—1161110123
WAug 28 · 08:23M. Zelinka—91111113L. Dobias—117681
WAug 28 · 05:45M. Zelinka—81111123L. Dobias—1194101
LAug 25 · 08:53M. Zelinka—61111532L. Dobias—113811113
WAug 25 · 07:45M. Zelinka—912113113L. Dobias—111091152
LAug 24 · 06:15M. Zelinka—77100L. Dobias—1111123
LAug 7 · 08:38M. Zelinka—6690L. Dobias—1111113
WAug 7 · 06:30M. Zelinka—1111113L. Dobias—7970
M. Zelinka10
WSep 9 · 10:15L. Svoboda2.25107111182M. Zelinka1.57121196113LSep 9 · 09:45M. Stibor2.2011811133M. Zelinka1.617111111WSep 8 · 08:18L. Dobias1.73971181M. Zelinka2.0011117113LSep 8 · 07:15M. Zelinka2.10711912102L. Dobias1.671161110123LSep 8 · 06:15M. Zelinka1.835980L. Heinzl1.831111113WSep 8 · 05:15M. Zelinka1.531111113V. Grubr2.387970WSep 7 · 08:49M. Zelinka1.8311812113L. Heinzl1.839111091WSep 7 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.83551691M. Zelinka1.83111114113LSep 7 · 06:45L. Veigl2.3811611113M. Zelinka1.53911951LSep 7 · 05:15P. Wasik1.531110117113M. Zelinka2.3831281182
L. Dobias10
LSep 9 · 12:19L. Dobias1.5381410131L. Svoboda2.38111212153LSep 9 · 10:45M. Stibor2.2011811113L. Dobias1.61311691WSep 9 · 09:15L. Svoboda2.381277101L. Dobias1.53101111123LSep 8 · 08:18L. Dobias1.73971181M. Zelinka2.0011117113WSep 8 · 07:15M. Zelinka2.10711912102L. Dobias1.671161110123WSep 8 · 06:45L. Dobias1.501111123V. Grubr2.5089100WSep 8 · 05:45L. Dobias1.53111111113L. Heinzl2.38139771LAug 28 · 08:23L. Dobias1.57117681M. Zelinka2.2591111113WAug 28 · 07:45L. Dobias1.73911913113V. Burylov2.00115111192LAug 28 · 06:15P. Wasik1.8311711113L. Dobias1.83711681
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