TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13103965
Played Sep 9Finished
Ladislav Dobias
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811141210121315––
Lukas Svoboda
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
How it is goingLadislav Dobias above · Lukas Svoboda below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 13-15
Point 95 set 4, 13-15
95 points played in total.
H2H Ladislav Dobias 7–4 Lukas Svoboda Lukas Svoboda has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Dobias beat Svoboda 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Dobias)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dobias form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDobias 1.53 / Svoboda 2.38
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Dobias)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13103965
Dobias1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite59% won 207 of 350
Up 2–0, closes it94% 66 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it80% 147 of 183
Svoboda2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 15 of 35
Down 0–1, comes back28% 5 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDobias6wins
AwaySvoboda4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDobias leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDobias60%3 of 5
AwaySvoboda40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dobias5Svoboda5n = 10split evenly
S2Dobias7Svoboda3n = 10Dobias took 7 of 10
S3Dobias5Svoboda5n = 10split evenly
S4Dobias5Svoboda4n = 9Dobias took 5 of 9
S5Dobias2Svoboda2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDobiasSvobodaD − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.339.2+2.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDobiasSvobodaBasisWin rate · lifetime411 / 738 vs 69 / 15455.7%44.8%411 / 738 vs 69 / 154Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match41.138.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DobiasDobias 1.53/Svoboda 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64%
Dobias · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Svoboda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 09:15L. Dobias—101111123L. Svoboda—1277101
WAug 6 · 10:45L. Dobias—1111911113L. Svoboda—13911882
LAug 5 · 08:44L. Dobias—11711362L. Svoboda—811911113
LAug 5 · 05:45L. Dobias—811861L. Svoboda—11611113
WAug 4 · 16:14L. Dobias—131111113L. Svoboda—153771
WAug 4 · 13:15L. Dobias—11119113L. Svoboda—681181
WAug 4 · 05:45L. Dobias—1111113L. Svoboda—7790
WAug 3 · 20:48L. Dobias—1111710113L. Svoboda—86111222
LAug 3 · 17:15L. Dobias—11681162L. Svoboda—911117113
LJul 16 · 09:15L. Dobias—761181L. Svoboda—11119113
L. Dobias10
LSep 9 · 11:45M. Zelinka2.101111113L. Dobias1.678970LSep 9 · 10:45M. Stibor2.2011811113L. Dobias1.61311691WSep 9 · 09:15L. Svoboda2.381277101L. Dobias1.53101111123LSep 8 · 08:18L. Dobias1.73971181M. Zelinka2.0011117113WSep 8 · 07:15M. Zelinka2.10711912102L. Dobias1.671161110123WSep 8 · 06:45L. Dobias1.501111123V. Grubr2.5089100WSep 8 · 05:45L. Dobias1.53111111113L. Heinzl2.38139771LAug 28 · 08:23L. Dobias1.57117681M. Zelinka2.2591111113WAug 28 · 07:45L. Dobias1.73911913113V. Burylov2.00115111192LAug 28 · 06:15P. Wasik1.8311711113L. Dobias1.83711681
L. Svoboda10
LSep 9 · 11:15L. Svoboda1.80114471M. Stibor1.9161111113LSep 9 · 10:15L. Svoboda2.25107111182M. Zelinka1.57121196113LSep 9 · 09:15L. Svoboda2.381277101L. Dobias1.53101111123WAug 31 · 16:49V. Grubr2.388880L. Svoboda1.531111113WAug 31 · 15:15L. Svoboda1.5791111113O. Mezera2.25119561WAug 31 · 14:15L. Svoboda1.8312116123A. Radkovsky1.8310511101WAug 31 · 13:15L. Svoboda1.611111113V. Grubr2.207780LAug 15 · 08:50L. Svoboda2.38129771J. Chalupa1.53101111113WAug 15 · 07:45O. Mezera2.00581191L. Svoboda1.7311117113WAug 15 · 06:45M. Kocvara1.6712714642L. Svoboda2.1010111211113
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