TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105707
Played Sep 10Finished
Ondrej Chadima
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1210611311611––
Petr Provaznik
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:28 and never touched — 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timePetr Provaznik to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Chadima above · Petr Provaznik below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 70 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Petr Provaznik at 63.7%
70 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Chadima 3–7 Petr Provaznik Ondrej Chadima has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:28What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Provaznik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-7 in 10
Provaznik
Correct
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chadima 1554 vs Provaznik 1548
Chadima
Wrong
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chadima 60% vs Provaznik 40%
Chadima
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chadima 50% vs Provaznik 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chadima +1 · Provaznik -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Provaznik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Provaznik form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChadima 2.50 / Provaznik 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Provaznik)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13105707
Chadima2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 55 of 145
Down 0–1, comes back18% 16 of 87
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 47
Provaznik1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 52 of 100
Up 2–0, closes it86% 24 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it69% 35 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChadima3wins
AwayProvaznik7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderProvaznik leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChadima40%2 of 5
AwayProvaznik80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chadima5Provaznik5n = 10split evenly
S2Chadima3Provaznik7n = 10Provaznik took 7 of 10
S3Chadima1Provaznik9n = 10Provaznik took 9 of 10
S4Chadima3Provaznik6n = 9Provaznik took 6 of 9
S5Chadima3Provaznik0n = 3Chadima took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away660%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricChadimaProvaznikC − PBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.041.7−5.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChadimaProvaznikBasisWin rate · lifetime300 / 588 vs 235 / 49651%47.4%300 / 588 vs 235 / 496Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ProvaznikChadima 2.50/Provaznik 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.7%
Provaznik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Provaznik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 19 · 16:33O. Chadima—211971P. Provaznik—11911113
WAug 19 · 15:30O. Chadima—1191111113P. Provaznik—13115692
LAug 12 · 10:30O. Chadima—114791P. Provaznik—71111113
LAug 7 · 20:14O. Chadima—117971P. Provaznik—71111113
LAug 7 · 17:45O. Chadima—811371P. Provaznik—11711113
LAug 6 · 14:45O. Chadima—8111091P. Provaznik—11912113
WJul 21 · 15:30O. Chadima—120911113P. Provaznik—101111672
LJan 21 · 17:37O. Chadima—81140P. Provaznik—1113113
WJan 21 · 16:00O. Chadima—113811113P. Provaznik—71111972
LJan 20 · 20:30O. Chadima—1111861P. Provaznik—81311113
O. Chadima10
WSep 10 · 18:15O. Chadima1.91817911123V. Herrmann1.801115119102LSep 10 · 17:15O. Chadima2.0012991162Z. Kuksa1.731011119113WSep 5 · 21:00D. Brichacek1.22131111982O. Chadima4.00155211113LSep 5 · 19:30T. Hanke1.73117116113O. Chadima2.0071181172WSep 5 · 19:00O. Chadima2.00912118113J. Juppa1.73111021172LSep 5 · 18:00O. Chadima3.508370D. Brichacek1.281111113WAug 31 · 20:29V. Herrmann1.9151191152O. Chadima1.80116118113LAug 31 · 19:15J. Gruber1.361111113O. Chadima3.004740LAug 31 · 18:45O. Chadima1.831010110V. Herrmann1.831212133WAug 31 · 17:45O. Chadima2.7513811113P. Orlowski1.401111971
P. Provaznik10
LSep 10 · 18:45P. Provaznik1.407511101Z. Kuksa2.7511119102LSep 10 · 17:45P. Provaznik1.831011961V. Herrmann1.8312911113WSep 9 · 17:03P. Hala1.5071131192P. Provaznik2.50119118113WSep 9 · 15:30P. Provaznik2.2513411113T. Hucko1.571111771LSep 9 · 14:30P. Provaznik2.503111051P. Hala1.5011512113WSep 9 · 13:30P. Provaznik2.25912611113L. Kolman1.57111011732WSep 4 · 16:34M. Bruk1.6551191112P. Provaznik2.10113118113LSep 4 · 15:15P. Provaznik1.91118111452O. Horak1.809111312113LSep 4 · 14:15P. Provaznik2.0011761172J. Simek1.73711117113LSep 4 · 13:15P. Provaznik2.001461181M. Bruk1.7316119113
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