TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105622
Played Sep 10Finished
Petr Provaznik
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012119911611––
Vit Herrmann
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:28 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVit Herrmann to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Provaznik above · Vit Herrmann below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 79 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Vit Herrmann at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Petr Provaznik 2–0 Vit Herrmann Vit Herrmann has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:28What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Herrmann
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Provaznik 1556 vs Herrmann 1668
Herrmann
Correct
both rated, 112 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Provaznik 80% vs Herrmann 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Provaznik 50% vs Herrmann 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Provaznik +2 · Herrmann +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Herrmann)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Herrmann form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsProvaznik 1.83 / Herrmann 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Herrmann)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13105622
Provaznik1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Herrmann1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeProvaznik2wins
AwayHerrmann0wins
Provaznik leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home2
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricProvaznikHerrmannP − HBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match43.532.0+11.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricProvaznikHerrmannBasisWin rate · lifetime235 / 494 vs 216 / 44247.6%48.9%235 / 494 vs 216 / 442Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HerrmannProvaznik 1.83/Herrmann 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Herrmann · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Herrmann won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WJan 20 · 19:30P. Provaznik—111111113V. Herrmann—137631
WJan 2 · 12:45P. Provaznik—101111113V. Herrmann—129681
P. Provaznik10
WSep 9 · 17:03P. Hala1.5071131192P. Provaznik2.50119118113WSep 9 · 15:30P. Provaznik2.2513411113T. Hucko1.571111771LSep 9 · 14:30P. Provaznik2.503111051P. Hala1.5011512113WSep 9 · 13:30P. Provaznik2.25912611113L. Kolman1.57111011732WSep 4 · 16:34M. Bruk1.6551191112P. Provaznik2.10113118113LSep 4 · 15:15P. Provaznik1.91118111452O. Horak1.809111312113LSep 4 · 14:15P. Provaznik2.0011761172J. Simek1.73711117113LSep 4 · 13:15P. Provaznik2.001461181M. Bruk1.7316119113LSep 1 · 20:48P. Provaznik2.751071171M. Hajek1.4012116113WSep 1 · 19:45M. Hajek1.50101170P. Provaznik2.501213113
V. Herrmann10
LSep 10 · 18:15O. Chadima1.91817911123V. Herrmann1.801115119102WSep 6 · 13:00J. Juppa1.50911791V. Herrmann2.5011811113WSep 6 · 11:30V. Herrmann1.9114911113S. Kalensky1.801211691LSep 6 · 10:30V. Herrmann1.80891181J. Juppa1.9111113113WSep 6 · 09:30V. Herrmann1.83111011113T. Bertho1.83512931WSep 5 · 12:49L. Kolman1.57107111282V. Herrmann2.251211910103WSep 5 · 11:15P. Maly1.6112111171V. Herrmann2.2014138103LSep 5 · 10:45V. Herrmann2.5013990L. Kolman1.501511113WSep 5 · 09:45V. Herrmann2.0011136113V. Lopata1.739111171LAug 31 · 20:29V. Herrmann1.9151191152O. Chadima1.80116118113
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