TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105855
Played Sep 10Finished
Ondrej Chadima
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
81117159111191210
Vit Herrmann
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:44 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Chadima to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Chadima above · Vit Herrmann below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 17-15
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 113 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Ondrej Chadima at 54.0%
113 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Chadima 17–14 Vit Herrmann Vit Herrmann has won 14 of their 31 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:44What took a side1 for · 5 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Herrmann
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-14 in 31
Chadima
Correct
gap of 3 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chadima 1540 vs Herrmann 1668
Herrmann
Wrong
both rated, 129 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chadima 40% vs Herrmann 80%
Herrmann
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chadima 40% vs Herrmann 70%
Herrmann
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chadima -1 · Herrmann +3
Herrmann
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Herrmann) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Herrmann form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChadima 1.91 / Herrmann 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Herrmann)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13105855
Chadima1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 55 of 145
Down 0–1, comes back18% 16 of 87
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 47
Herrmann1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite52% won 42 of 81
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it74% 31 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChadima6wins
AwayHerrmann4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderChadima leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChadima33.3%1 of 3
AwayHerrmann28.6%2 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chadima3Herrmann7n = 10Herrmann took 7 of 10
S2Chadima5Herrmann5n = 10split evenly
S3Chadima6Herrmann4n = 10Chadima took 6 of 10
S4Chadima6Herrmann3n = 9Chadima took 6 of 9
S5Chadima3Herrmann2n = 5Chadima took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricChadimaHerrmannC − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match43.541.4+2.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChadimaHerrmannBasisWin rate · lifetime299 / 587 vs 217 / 43950.9%49.4%299 / 587 vs 217 / 439Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HerrmannChadima 1.91/Herrmann 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Herrmann · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Chadima won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 20:29O. Chadima—116118113V. Herrmann—51191152
LAug 31 · 18:45O. Chadima—1010110V. Herrmann—1212133
WJul 2 · 10:45O. Chadima—911911113V. Herrmann—11711842
LJun 7 · 12:00O. Chadima—1591171V. Herrmann—17117113
LJun 6 · 16:14O. Chadima—11711692V. Herrmann—911811113
WJun 6 · 13:15O. Chadima—8121111113V. Herrmann—111013642
WApr 18 · 13:04O. Chadima—71113123V. Herrmann—11511101
LApr 18 · 12:00O. Chadima—11351182V. Herrmann—511118113
WMar 1 · 10:30O. Chadima—81211113V. Herrmann—1110781
WFeb 7 · 15:15O. Chadima—121111103V. Herrmann—147871
O. Chadima10
LSep 10 · 17:15O. Chadima2.0012991162Z. Kuksa1.731011119113WSep 5 · 21:00D. Brichacek1.22131111982O. Chadima4.00155211113LSep 5 · 19:30T. Hanke1.73117116113O. Chadima2.0071181172WSep 5 · 19:00O. Chadima2.00912118113J. Juppa1.73111021172LSep 5 · 18:00O. Chadima3.508370D. Brichacek1.281111113WAug 31 · 20:29V. Herrmann1.9151191152O. Chadima1.80116118113LAug 31 · 19:15J. Gruber1.361111113O. Chadima3.004740LAug 31 · 18:45O. Chadima1.831010110V. Herrmann1.831212133WAug 31 · 17:45O. Chadima2.7513811113P. Orlowski1.401111971LAug 29 · 16:44V. Lopata1.2511119113O. Chadima3.75551141
V. Herrmann10
WSep 10 · 17:45P. Provaznik1.831011961V. Herrmann1.8312911113WSep 6 · 13:00J. Juppa1.50911791V. Herrmann2.5011811113WSep 6 · 11:30V. Herrmann1.9114911113S. Kalensky1.801211691LSep 6 · 10:30V. Herrmann1.80891181J. Juppa1.9111113113WSep 6 · 09:30V. Herrmann1.83111011113T. Bertho1.83512931WSep 5 · 12:49L. Kolman1.57107111282V. Herrmann2.251211910103WSep 5 · 11:15P. Maly1.6112111171V. Herrmann2.2014138103LSep 5 · 10:45V. Herrmann2.5013990L. Kolman1.501511113LAug 31 · 20:29V. Herrmann1.9151191152O. Chadima1.80116118113WAug 31 · 18:45O. Chadima1.831010110V. Herrmann1.831212133
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