TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13101957
Played Sep 9Finished
Jan Trefny
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611114711911––
Radim Pavelka
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
How it is goingJan Trefny above · Radim Pavelka below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 70 set 4, 9-11
70 points played in total.
H2H Jan Trefny 5–2 Radim Pavelka Radim Pavelka has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Trefny beat Pavelka 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Trefny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pavelka form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTrefny 1.80 / Pavelka 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Trefny)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13101957
Trefny1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite49% won 24 of 49
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it71% 15 of 21
Pavelka1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 79 of 187
Down 0–1, comes back23% 24 of 104
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeTrefny5wins
AwayPavelka2wins
3 of 7 to a deciderTrefny leads 5–2, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTrefnyn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayPavelka20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Trefny2Pavelka5n = 7Pavelka took 5 of 7
S2Trefny4Pavelka3n = 7Trefny took 4 of 7
S3Trefny4Pavelka3n = 7Trefny took 4 of 7
S4Trefny4Pavelka3n = 7Trefny took 4 of 7
S5Trefny3Pavelka0n = 3Trefny took 3 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home343%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricTrefnyPavelkaT − PBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match42.440.6+1.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTrefnyPavelkaBasisWin rate · lifetime55 / 111 vs 446 / 88749.6%50.3%55 / 111 vs 446 / 887Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.538.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TrefnyTrefny 1.80/Pavelka 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Trefny · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Pavelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 8 · 22:30J. Trefny—811134113R. Pavelka—119111172
WSep 6 · 20:00J. Trefny—121311113R. Pavelka—1015561
LAug 31 · 17:29J. Trefny—114971R. Pavelka—81111113
WAug 31 · 16:00J. Trefny—91111113R. Pavelka—116551
LJul 25 · 23:00J. Trefny—3111061R. Pavelka—11312113
WJul 15 · 20:58J. Trefny—711911113R. Pavelka—11511882
WJul 15 · 19:00J. Trefny—1061211123R. Pavelka—1211108102
J. Trefny10
LSep 9 · 01:30J. Trefny3.5011291152R. Krejci1.28711119113WSep 9 · 24:30V. Postelt2.00101190J. Trefny1.731213113LSep 8 · 23:30M. Vedmoch1.44111112113J. Trefny2.63761481WSep 8 · 22:30J. Trefny1.83811134113R. Pavelka1.83119111172LSep 8 · 17:30J. Plachy2.101111113J. Trefny1.678750WSep 8 · 16:30J. Trefny1.5391111113J. Plachy2.38117681WSep 8 · 15:00J. Trefny1.801311113T. Dousa1.9111580LSep 8 · 14:00Y. Holovatiuk2.201111113J. Trefny1.614320LSep 7 · 13:30J. Plachy1.9111118113J. Trefny1.80891151WSep 7 · 12:00V. Postelt1.611081151J. Trefny2.2012114113
R. Pavelka10
LSep 9 · 02:00R. Pavelka2.2011981172V. Postelt1.61711119113LSep 9 · 01:00R. Pavelka1.731011951M. Vedmoch2.0012311113WSep 9 · 24:00R. Krejci1.6711981132R. Pavelka2.10711119113LSep 8 · 22:30J. Trefny1.83811134113R. Pavelka1.83119111172LSep 7 · 16:59R. Pavelka1.831013111192T. Dousa1.831211136113WSep 7 · 16:30R. Pavelka1.911111113T. Dousa1.807580LSep 7 · 15:00R. Pavelka1.8081171142M. Sedlak1.91118119113LSep 7 · 14:00M. Vedmoch2.251111113R. Pavelka1.579450WSep 6 · 20:59J. Prokupek1.916570R. Pavelka1.801111113LSep 6 · 20:00R. Pavelka1.611015561J. Trefny2.20121311113
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