TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13092897
Played Sep 8Finished
Jan Trefny
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911117116118––
Jiri Plachy
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:39 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeJan Trefny to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Trefny above · Jiri Plachy below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 74 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Jan Trefny at 54.5%
74 points played in total.
H2H Jan Trefny 6–6 Jiri Plachy Dead even across their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:39What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Trefny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-6 in 12
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Trefny 1574 vs Plachy 1528
Trefny
Correct
both rated, 46 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Trefny 60% vs Plachy 100%
Plachy
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Trefny 50% vs Plachy 70%
Plachy
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Trefny +1 · Plachy +5
Plachy
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Trefny) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Plachy form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTrefny 1.53 / Plachy 2.38
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Trefny)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13092897
Trefny1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite49% won 24 of 49
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it71% 15 of 21
Plachy2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 177 of 423
Down 0–1, comes back22% 51 of 236
Down 0–2, comes back6% 7 of 128
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTrefny4wins
AwayPlachy6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPlachy leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTrefny75%3 of 4
AwayPlachy83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Trefny4Plachy6n = 10Plachy took 6 of 10
S2Trefny4Plachy6n = 10Plachy took 6 of 10
S3Trefny5Plachy5n = 10split evenly
S4Trefny2Plachy6n = 8Plachy took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricTrefnyPlachyT − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.938.4−2.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTrefnyPlachyBasisWin rate · lifetime52 / 105 vs 748 / 160949.5%46.5%52 / 105 vs 748 / 1609Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.437.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TrefnyTrefny 1.53/Plachy 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.8%
Trefny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Trefny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 13:30J. Trefny—891151J. Plachy—11118113
LSep 7 · 10:30J. Trefny—571151J. Plachy—11119113
WSep 7 · 09:00J. Trefny—117912143J. Plachy—8111110122
LSep 7 · 07:00J. Trefny—911951J. Plachy—11511113
WSep 3 · 22:30J. Trefny—811119113J. Plachy—11641182
LSep 1 · 07:30J. Trefny—561191J. Plachy—11118113
WAug 26 · 24:00J. Trefny—1111113J. Plachy—9670
LAug 18 · 10:30J. Trefny—1181081J. Plachy—61112113
WAug 18 · 07:00J. Trefny—11116113J. Plachy—891171
LJul 30 · 03:28J. Trefny—6960J. Plachy—1111113
J. Trefny10
WSep 8 · 15:00J. Trefny1.801311113T. Dousa1.9111580LSep 8 · 14:00Y. Holovatiuk2.201111113J. Trefny1.614320LSep 7 · 13:30J. Plachy1.9111118113J. Trefny1.80891151WSep 7 · 12:00V. Postelt1.611081151J. Trefny2.2012114113WSep 7 · 11:00L. Malek2.6381171132J. Trefny1.44119119113LSep 7 · 10:30J. Trefny1.67571151J. Plachy2.1011119113WSep 7 · 09:00J. Trefny1.73117912143J. Plachy2.008111110122LSep 7 · 08:30J. Trefny1.507930J. Prokupek2.501111113LSep 7 · 07:00J. Trefny1.73911951J. Plachy2.0011511113WSep 7 · 06:00J. Svoboda1.251165121J. Trefny3.7581111143
J. Plachy10
WSep 8 · 15:30J. Plachy1.441111113Y. Holovatiuk2.633250WSep 8 · 14:30T. Dousa1.9141181182J. Plachy1.80113118113WSep 7 · 13:30J. Plachy1.9111118113J. Trefny1.80891151WSep 7 · 12:30L. Malek2.253650J. Plachy1.571111113WSep 7 · 11:30J. Plachy2.251111107113V. Postelt1.5777121182WSep 7 · 10:30J. Trefny1.67571151J. Plachy2.1011119113LSep 7 · 09:00J. Trefny1.73117912143J. Plachy2.008111110122LSep 7 · 08:00J. Svoboda1.361112113J. Plachy3.0051090WSep 7 · 07:00J. Trefny1.73911951J. Plachy2.0011511113LSep 7 · 06:30J. Plachy1.837880J. Prokupek1.831111113
Upcoming Matches
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J. Plachy1 of 4 neutral
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