TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13092734
Played Sep 7Finished
Jiri Plachy
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118119811115––
Jan Trefny
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:56 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Trefny to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJiri Plachy above · Jan Trefny below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 74 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Jan Trefny at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Plachy 5–6 Jan Trefny Jiri Plachy has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
They have already met 3 times today · last one 3h before this match
Plachy beat Trefny 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:56What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Trefny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-6 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Plachy 1482 vs Trefny 1591
Trefny
Wrong
both rated, 109 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Plachy 60% vs Trefny 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Plachy 60% vs Trefny 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Plachy +3 · Trefny +2
Plachy
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Trefny)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlachy 1.91 / Trefny 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Trefny)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13092734
Plachy1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 173 of 417
Down 0–1, comes back22% 51 of 234
Down 0–2, comes back6% 7 of 127
Trefny1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite51% won 22 of 43
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it68% 13 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePlachy5wins
AwayTrefny5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePlachy66.7%4 of 6
AwayTrefny75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Plachy6Trefny4n = 10Plachy took 6 of 10
S2Plachy5Trefny5n = 10split evenly
S3Plachy5Trefny5n = 10split evenly
S4Plachy5Trefny3n = 8Plachy took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPlachyTrefnyP − TBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.536.5+1.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlachyTrefnyBasisWin rate · lifetime748 / 1611 vs 51 / 10246.4%50%748 / 1611 vs 51 / 102Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.535.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TrefnyPlachy 1.91/Trefny 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Trefny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Plachy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 10:30J. Plachy—11119113J. Trefny—571151
LSep 7 · 09:00J. Plachy—8111110122J. Trefny—117912143
WSep 7 · 07:00J. Plachy—11511113J. Trefny—911951
LSep 3 · 22:30J. Plachy—11641182J. Trefny—811119113
WSep 1 · 07:30J. Plachy—11118113J. Trefny—561191
LAug 26 · 24:00J. Plachy—9670J. Trefny—1111113
WAug 18 · 10:30J. Plachy—61112113J. Trefny—1181081
LAug 18 · 07:00J. Plachy—891171J. Trefny—11116113
WJul 30 · 03:28J. Plachy—1111113J. Trefny—6960
LJul 30 · 01:30J. Plachy—118941J. Trefny—61111113
J. Plachy10
WSep 8 · 15:30J. Plachy1.441111113Y. Holovatiuk2.633250WSep 8 · 14:30T. Dousa1.9141181182J. Plachy1.80113118113WSep 7 · 12:30L. Malek2.253650J. Plachy1.571111113WSep 7 · 11:30J. Plachy2.251111107113V. Postelt1.5777121182WSep 7 · 10:30J. Trefny1.67571151J. Plachy2.1011119113LSep 7 · 09:00J. Trefny1.73117912143J. Plachy2.008111110122LSep 7 · 08:00J. Svoboda1.361112113J. Plachy3.0051090WSep 7 · 07:00J. Trefny1.73911951J. Plachy2.0011511113LSep 7 · 06:30J. Plachy1.837880J. Prokupek1.831111113WSep 6 · 02:59J. Plachy2.0011117113V. Postelt1.70491181
J. Trefny10
WSep 8 · 15:00J. Trefny1.801311113T. Dousa1.9111580LSep 8 · 14:00Y. Holovatiuk2.201111113J. Trefny1.614320WSep 7 · 12:00V. Postelt1.611081151J. Trefny2.2012114113WSep 7 · 11:00L. Malek2.6381171132J. Trefny1.44119119113LSep 7 · 10:30J. Trefny1.67571151J. Plachy2.1011119113WSep 7 · 09:00J. Trefny1.73117912143J. Plachy2.008111110122LSep 7 · 08:30J. Trefny1.507930J. Prokupek2.501111113LSep 7 · 07:00J. Trefny1.73911951J. Plachy2.0011511113WSep 7 · 06:00J. Svoboda1.251165121J. Trefny3.7581111143WSep 6 · 21:28J. Trefny1.671112113J. Dedek2.1091050
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