TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13092967
Played Sep 8Finished
Jan Trefny
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1311115118––––
Tomas Dousa
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:39 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Trefny to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Trefny above · Tomas Dousa below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 59 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Jan Trefny at 54.0%
59 points played in total.
H2H Jan Trefny 1–1 Tomas Dousa Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:39What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Trefny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Trefny 1561 vs Dousa 1531
Trefny
Correct
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Trefny 40% vs Dousa 60%
Dousa
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Trefny 50% vs Dousa 70%
Dousa
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Trefny -2 · Dousa +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Trefny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Trefny form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTrefny 1.80 / Dousa 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Trefny)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13092967
Trefny1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite49% won 24 of 49
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it71% 15 of 21
Dousa1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog42% won 54 of 128
Down 0–1, comes back20% 15 of 75
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeTrefny1wins
AwayDousa1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricTrefnyDousaT − DBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match33.029.5+3.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTrefnyDousaBasisWin rate · lifetime51 / 104 vs 348 / 70349%49.5%51 / 104 vs 348 / 703Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.538.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TrefnyTrefny 1.80/Dousa 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Trefny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Trefny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 3 · 14:30J. Trefny—117781T. Dousa—71111113
WJul 20 · 20:00J. Trefny—1111113T. Dousa—9460
J. Trefny10
LSep 8 · 14:00Y. Holovatiuk2.201111113J. Trefny1.614320LSep 7 · 13:30J. Plachy1.9111118113J. Trefny1.80891151WSep 7 · 12:00V. Postelt1.611081151J. Trefny2.2012114113WSep 7 · 11:00L. Malek2.6381171132J. Trefny1.44119119113LSep 7 · 10:30J. Trefny1.67571151J. Plachy2.1011119113WSep 7 · 09:00J. Trefny1.73117912143J. Plachy2.008111110122LSep 7 · 08:30J. Trefny1.507930J. Prokupek2.501111113LSep 7 · 07:00J. Trefny1.73911951J. Plachy2.0011511113WSep 7 · 06:00J. Svoboda1.251165121J. Trefny3.7581111143WSep 6 · 21:28J. Trefny1.671112113J. Dedek2.1091050
T. Dousa10
LSep 8 · 14:30T. Dousa1.9141181182J. Plachy1.80113118113WSep 7 · 16:59R. Pavelka1.831013111192T. Dousa1.831211136113LSep 7 · 16:30R. Pavelka1.911111113T. Dousa1.807580WSep 7 · 15:30T. Dousa2.0012911113M. Vedmoch1.731011551LSep 7 · 14:30M. Sedlak1.611111113T. Dousa2.208860WAug 31 · 21:28T. Dousa1.801112113P. Fojt1.9181080WAug 31 · 20:00P. Fojt1.839270T. Dousa1.831111113WAug 31 · 19:00M. Kolar2.25691181T. Dousa1.5711118113WAug 31 · 18:30T. Dousa1.401111123Y. Holovatiuk2.7599100LAug 27 · 17:29R. Pavelka1.7381111113T. Dousa2.00117891
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