TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13087388
Played Sep 7Finished
Vladimir Postelt
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012811114511––
Jan Trefny
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:51 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeVladimir Postelt to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingVladimir Postelt above · Jan Trefny below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 72 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Vladimir Postelt at 55.3%
72 points played in total.
H2H Vladimir Postelt 3–2 Jan Trefny Jan Trefny has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:51What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Postelt
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Postelt 1441 vs Trefny 1583
Trefny
Correct
both rated, 142 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Postelt 40% vs Trefny 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Postelt 40% vs Trefny 60%
Trefny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Postelt -1 · Trefny +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Postelt)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Postelt form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPostelt 1.61 / Trefny 2.20
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Postelt)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13087388
Postelt1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 121 of 195
Up 2–0, closes it95% 58 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it85% 96 of 113
Trefny2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 25 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back23% 6 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomePostelt3wins
AwayTrefny2wins
2 of 5 to a deciderPostelt leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePosteltn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayTrefny50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Postelt1Trefny4n = 5Trefny took 4 of 5
S2Postelt2Trefny3n = 5Trefny took 3 of 5
S3Postelt3Trefny2n = 5Postelt took 3 of 5
S4Postelt2Trefny2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricPosteltTrefnyP − TBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match39.036.8+2.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPosteltTrefnyBasisWin rate · lifetime431 / 813 vs 50 / 10153%49.5%431 / 813 vs 50 / 101Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.635.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PosteltPostelt 1.61/Trefny 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.3%
Postelt · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Trefny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 26 · 03:28V. Postelt—1112118113J. Trefny—41491162
WAug 26 · 02:30V. Postelt—711611113J. Trefny—11711472
LAug 22 · 23:30V. Postelt—5680J. Trefny—1111113
WAug 18 · 13:30V. Postelt—101111113J. Trefny—126651
LAug 18 · 11:30V. Postelt—861191J. Trefny—11115113
V. Postelt10
LSep 7 · 11:30J. Plachy2.251111107113V. Postelt1.5777121182WSep 7 · 10:00V. Postelt1.401111113L. Malek2.752690LSep 6 · 02:59J. Plachy2.0011117113V. Postelt1.70491181WSep 6 · 02:30V. Postelt1.2811115113Y. Holovatiuk3.50751161LSep 6 · 01:30P. Fojt2.751111113V. Postelt1.402790LSep 6 · 24:00V. Postelt1.53108170J. Plachy2.381211193WSep 5 · 23:00J. Prokupek2.0061171182V. Postelt1.73114118113LSep 4 · 21:30M. Kolar1.9011118113V. Postelt1.80561181WSep 4 · 20:00J. Dedek2.757680V. Postelt1.401111113LSep 4 · 19:00M. Kolar2.2511811113V. Postelt1.57711291
J. Trefny10
WSep 7 · 11:00L. Malek2.6381171132J. Trefny1.44119119113LSep 7 · 10:30J. Trefny1.67571151J. Plachy2.1011119113WSep 7 · 09:00J. Trefny1.73117912143J. Plachy2.008111110122LSep 7 · 08:30J. Trefny1.507930J. Prokupek2.501111113LSep 7 · 07:00J. Trefny1.73911951J. Plachy2.0011511113WSep 7 · 06:00J. Svoboda1.251165121J. Trefny3.7581111143WSep 6 · 21:28J. Trefny1.671112113J. Dedek2.1091050WSep 6 · 20:00R. Pavelka1.611015561J. Trefny2.20121311113LSep 6 · 19:00J. Prokupek2.2581111113J. Trefny1.57117741WSep 6 · 18:30J. Trefny1.831111123J. Dedek1.8359100
Upcoming Matches
V. Postelt
Sep 7 · 22:00V. Postelt1.83J. Prokupek1.83—Sep 7 · 23:30V. Postelt2.38D. Kouble1.53—Sep 8 · 01:00V. Postelt1.50P. Fojt2.50—Sep 8 · 02:30V. Postelt1.33J. Dedek3.25—Sep 8 · 22:00V. Postelt2.35M. Vedmoch1.52—Sep 8 · 23:00V. Postelt2.45R. Krejci1.48—Sep 9 · 24:30V. Postelt1.80J. Trefny1.91—Sep 9 · 02:00V. Postelt1.61R. Pavelka2.20—
J. Trefny1 of 4 neutral
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