TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13087432
Played Sep 7Finished
Jan Trefny
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511711119511––
Jiri Plachy
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:04 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeJan Trefny to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJan Trefny above · Jiri Plachy below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 70 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Jan Trefny at 57.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Jan Trefny 6–4 Jiri Plachy Jiri Plachy has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 2h before this match
Trefny beat Plachy 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:04What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Trefny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-4 in 10
Trefny
Wrong
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Trefny 1586 vs Plachy 1447
Trefny
Wrong
both rated, 139 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Trefny 60% vs Plachy 40%
Trefny
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Trefny 60% vs Plachy 40%
Trefny
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Trefny +1 · Plachy -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Trefny)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTrefny 1.67 / Plachy 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Trefny)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13087432
Trefny1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite51% won 22 of 43
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it68% 13 of 19
Plachy2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 173 of 417
Down 0–1, comes back22% 51 of 234
Down 0–2, comes back6% 7 of 127
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTrefny6wins
AwayPlachy4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderTrefny leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTrefny75%3 of 4
AwayPlachy50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Trefny4Plachy6n = 10Plachy took 6 of 10
S2Trefny6Plachy4n = 10Trefny took 6 of 10
S3Trefny5Plachy5n = 10split evenly
S4Trefny4Plachy4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricTrefnyPlachyT − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.536.5+1.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTrefnyPlachyBasisWin rate · lifetime49 / 99 vs 745 / 160849.5%46.3%49 / 99 vs 745 / 1608Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.637.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TrefnyTrefny 1.67/Plachy 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Trefny · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Plachy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 09:00J. Trefny—117912143J. Plachy—8111110122
LSep 7 · 07:00J. Trefny—911951J. Plachy—11511113
WSep 3 · 22:30J. Trefny—811119113J. Plachy—11641182
LSep 1 · 07:30J. Trefny—561191J. Plachy—11118113
WAug 26 · 24:00J. Trefny—1111113J. Plachy—9670
LAug 18 · 10:30J. Trefny—1181081J. Plachy—61112113
WAug 18 · 07:00J. Trefny—11116113J. Plachy—891171
LJul 30 · 03:28J. Trefny—6960J. Plachy—1111113
WJul 30 · 01:30J. Trefny—61111113J. Plachy—118941
WJul 20 · 19:30J. Trefny—51111113J. Plachy—118851
J. Trefny10
WSep 7 · 11:00L. Malek2.6381171132J. Trefny1.44119119113WSep 7 · 09:00J. Trefny1.73117912143J. Plachy2.008111110122LSep 7 · 08:30J. Trefny1.507930J. Prokupek2.501111113LSep 7 · 07:00J. Trefny1.73911951J. Plachy2.0011511113WSep 7 · 06:00J. Svoboda1.251165121J. Trefny3.7581111143WSep 6 · 21:28J. Trefny1.671112113J. Dedek2.1091050WSep 6 · 20:00R. Pavelka1.611015561J. Trefny2.20121311113LSep 6 · 19:00J. Prokupek2.2581111113J. Trefny1.57117741WSep 6 · 18:30J. Trefny1.831111123J. Dedek1.8359100LSep 6 · 17:29J. Trefny1.6714711842J. Dedek2.101211711113
J. Plachy10
LSep 7 · 09:00J. Trefny1.73117912143J. Plachy2.008111110122LSep 7 · 08:00J. Svoboda1.361112113J. Plachy3.0051090WSep 7 · 07:00J. Trefny1.73911951J. Plachy2.0011511113LSep 7 · 06:30J. Plachy1.837880J. Prokupek1.831111113WSep 6 · 02:59J. Plachy2.0011117113V. Postelt1.70491181WSep 6 · 02:00J. Plachy1.801111113J. Prokupek1.916750LSep 6 · 01:00J. Plachy1.7312660Y. Holovatiuk2.001411113WSep 6 · 24:00V. Postelt1.53108170J. Plachy2.381211193LSep 5 · 22:30P. Fojt1.831111113J. Plachy1.838780LSep 5 · 21:30J. Plachy1.684780L. Krok2.051111113
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