TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13086938
Played Sep 7Finished
Lukas Malek
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811119711119311
Jan Trefny
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:39 and never touched — 57.5% is still 57.5%
Graded at full timeJan Trefny to win
57.5%
57.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Malek above · Jan Trefny below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 91 set 5, 3-11 — our read held Jan Trefny at 57.5%
91 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:39What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Trefny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Malek 1451 vs Trefny 1576
Trefny
Correct
both rated, 125 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Malek 20% vs Trefny 40%
Trefny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Malek 30% vs Trefny 50%
Trefny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Malek -1 · Trefny -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Trefny) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Trefny form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMalek 2.63 / Trefny 1.44
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Trefny)+2.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13086938
Malek2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 22 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back15% 6 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 26
Trefny1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite51% won 22 of 43
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it68% 13 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricMalekTrefnyBasisWin rate · lifetime196 / 404 vs 49 / 10048.5%49%196 / 404 vs 49 / 100Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.935.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TrefnyMalek 2.63/Trefny 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.3%
Trefny · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Trefny won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
L. Malek10
LSep 7 · 10:00V. Postelt1.401111113L. Malek2.752690WSep 6 · 13:01K. Darin1.80961171L. Malek1.9111115113LSep 6 · 12:30F. Briza1.531111113L. Malek2.387860LSep 6 · 11:30L. Malek2.009120K. Darin1.731111113LSep 6 · 10:30F. Jungman1.5311811113L. Malek2.38711791LSep 4 · 13:00L. Malek2.251181021J. Steffan1.5791112113WSep 4 · 12:00D. Parhomenko1.441112661L. Malek2.6371411113LSep 4 · 11:00M. Kolar2.25111111113L. Malek1.57139971WSep 4 · 10:30L. Malek3.00111111123J. Steffan1.367136101LSep 1 · 13:30D. Parhomenko1.2511211113L. Malek3.751110861
J. Trefny10
WSep 7 · 12:00V. Postelt1.611081151J. Trefny2.2012114113LSep 7 · 10:30J. Trefny1.67571151J. Plachy2.1011119113WSep 7 · 09:00J. Trefny1.73117912143J. Plachy2.008111110122LSep 7 · 08:30J. Trefny1.507930J. Prokupek2.501111113LSep 7 · 07:00J. Trefny1.73911951J. Plachy2.0011511113WSep 7 · 06:00J. Svoboda1.251165121J. Trefny3.7581111143WSep 6 · 21:28J. Trefny1.671112113J. Dedek2.1091050WSep 6 · 20:00R. Pavelka1.611015561J. Trefny2.20121311113LSep 6 · 19:00J. Prokupek2.2581111113J. Trefny1.57117741WSep 6 · 18:30J. Trefny1.831111123J. Dedek1.8359100
Upcoming Matches
L. Malek
J. Trefny2 of 2 neutral
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